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05-21-2013, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Forwards are so bankable at no.1 it's actually amazing that teams even consider taking defensemen.

You are just as likely to get Chris Pronger as Cam Barker with a top 3 pick. It's pretty rare to land Niedermayer or Pronger - and both of them also took about 5 years to turn into true no.1 defensemen.

If Nathan MacKinnon is a player along the lines of Joe Sakic or Jonathan Toews, he should go no.1. It's safer and smarter. Way better risk management than taking Jones. I for one won't be shocked if the Avs take him and move Stastny and/or O'Reilly over the course of the next two seasons (targetting top 4 D in return).

I think the draft order is going:

Colorado - MacKinnon
Florida - Jones
Tampa Bay - Druoin
Nashville - Barkov
Carolina - Lindholm
Calgary - Monahan

Too bad for the Oilers, who will be left to decide on Nurse, Horvat, trading the pick.
I got this from Avs board:

Since 2006 - Franchise players picked in the top 10:
2006- Toews #3
2007- Kane #1
2008- Stamkos #1, Doughty #2, Pietrangelo #4
2009- Tavares #1, Duchene #3, OEL #6 (Hedman still has a chance to develop into one, he showed signs last year that he is close to really becoming a great player)
2010 (probably too early to call this)- Hall #1

So by count that is 3 centers, 2 left wings, and 3 defensemen.

In those drafts the only two real defensive busts are Ellerby and Hickey (who are both bottom pairing). The rest of the defensemen taken in that part of the draft ended up as top 2/4 defensemen (most are top pairing). While you have a lot of forwards who are 3rd/4th liners or out of the NHL (Sheppard, Frolik, Hamill, Bailey, Boedker, Filatov, Glennie). Drafting is an imperfect science regardless of position. People can claim all they want that Jones is the next EJ, doesn't make it true. Just like people can say MacKinnon is the next Brassard.

And also this:

Going by history instead of the talent you see is a very good way to pass up on elite players. Just because Hickey (who was an off the board pick anyway) failed doesn't mean that Jones will too. Just like because Stamkos is an elite NHL player, it doesn't mean that MacKinnon will be as well. Go with who projects to be the best player regardless of position.

But since we are all about history here, let's go off players that you can evaluate careers on and not their first couple years... Defensemen that were picked first at their position in the 90s:
1990 - Darryl Sydor - I remember his time as a Star and how good he was there
1991 - Scott Niedermeyer - Hall of Famer one of the best of his generation
1992 - Roman Hamrlik - First pairing defender for a long time
1993 - Chris Pronger - Hall of Famer, the standard of defensemen
1994 - Jovocop - Was first pairing for a while, but lacked enough hockey sense to be a long-term #1/2
1995 - Bryan Berard - If only he hadn't gotten injured he might have been 3rd best on this list
1996 - Chris Philips - Had maybe a couple years where he was a top pairing shutdown guy, but overall just a solid top 4
1997 - Eric Brewer - frustrating player, just a top 4 defensemen for most of his career
1998 - Brad Stuart - never panned out at a top pairing guy for a long period of time, but has been a great #3 for most of his career
1999 - Bradislav Mezei (what a terrible draft 1999 was) - honestly, no idea who this was

6 of those turned out to be first pairing defenders for at least a portion of their career (Sydor, Niedermeyer, Hamrlik, Pronger, Jovocop, and Berard). All except Mezei had long NHL careers as at least top 4 defensemen. A 60% chance at a top pairing defender is actually pretty good. 20% were Hall of Famers.

Forwards were 5/10 for being first line players Stefan, Dumont, Kilger, Bonk (might be wrong here as he was pretty good in the early 2000's with Ottawa), and Daigle were the 'busts' and Lindros, Nolan, Yashin, Thornton, and Lecavalier were the 1st liners. 50% is still pretty damn good.

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