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06-01-2013, 04:44 PM
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Habiton
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Montreal Canadiens Drafting Hit Rate (under Trevor Timmins)

Hi All,

Trevor Timmins is of the elite in the NHL in terms of scouting. I wanted to prove that to everyone by showing them his true track record. Did you know that over the top 3 rounds we have a 67% percent chance of getting a NHL Player? Thats staggering.

In fact in this draft we are slated to get 3.86 NHL players? (Round it to 4!)

I was going to put this in the draft section but I want everyone to see it. I did a lot of research to see how effective Trevor Timmins actually is. Lets put a number on it and see what the "value" of our picks should be. I assume this is what the management does. Timmins joined the organization in 2002-2003 so his first official draft year was 2003.

I define an impact player as a bonefide top 2/4 defensemen for an extended period of time or a bonefide top 6 forward. A star is defined as a player who has made it to an all-star game and/or had a truly dominant season. I define NHL regular as someone who can and did play regular minutes for a team in their prime. I also removed some who cannot be graded as of yet dueto the fact that they havent developed fully yet. Please note that regulars don't include the Impact Players or Stars in their calculations. See regulars+ for that.

Also please keep in mind that people like Patches, Gally, Galch are defined to what they are now. Not to what they can become. This is an at worst scenario in terms of our young players.

EDIT: Added the NHL's hit rate. Compared to the NHL the Montreal Canadians:

The Montreal Canadiens have a 46.35% higher chance at selecting an NHL quality player in the first two rounds (our success is 1.4635x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 90.10% higher chance at selecting a star player (our success is 1.910x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 11.85% higher chance at selecting an impact player (our success is 1.185x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 61.14% higher chance at selecting an regular player (our success is 1.185x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 44.19% lower chance at selecting a bust (our success is .558x the NHL average)

57 players were picked to be evaluated during this time.
2 Stars (PK + Price)
7 Impact Players
11 Regulars
37 Busts

In the top 3 rounds 21 players were picked
2 Stars (PK + Price)
3 Impact Players
9 Regulars
Only 7 Busts

In the top 2 rounds 14 players were picked
2 Star (PK)
3 Impact Players
5 Regulars
Only 4 Busts


Hit Rate - Top 2 Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 71.42%
Stars - 14.28%
Impact Players - 21.43%
Regulars - 35.71%
Busts - 28.57%

Hit Rate - Top 3 Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 66.67%
Stars - 9.52%
Impact Players - 14.28%
Regulars - 42.86%
Busts - 33.3%

Hit Rate - All Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 35.1%
Stars - 3.5%
Impact Players - 12.28%
Regulars - 19.3%
Busts - 64.9%

Hit Rate - Individual Rounds

1st Round Picks
Stars - 12.5%
Impact Players - 37.5%
Regulars - 37.5%
Regulars+ - 87.5%
Busts - 12.5%

2nd Round Picks
Stars - 16.7%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 33.3%
Regulars+ - 50%
Busts - 50%

3rd Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 57.1%
Regulars+ - 57.1%
Busts - 42.9%

4th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 0%
Regulars+ - 0%
Busts - 100%

5th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 28.6%
Regulars - 0%
Regulars+ - 28.6%
Busts - 71.4%

6th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 14.3%
Regulars+ - 14.3%
Busts - 85.7%

7th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 13.3%
Regulars - 6.67%
Regulars+ - 20%
Busts - 80%



Raw Data

1st Round
2003 - Andrei Kostitsyn (regular)
2004 - Kyle Chipchura (regular)
2005 - Carey Price (star)
2006 - David Fischer (bust, now get over it!)
2007 - Ryan McDonagh (impact), Max Pacioretty (impact to be star)
2008 - None
2009 - Louis Leblanc (developing)
2010 - Jarred Tinordi (regular, to be impact imo)
2011 - Nathan Beaulieu (developing)
2012 - Alex Galchenyuk (impact, to be star)
Totals
Stars - 1
Impact Players - 3
Regulars - 3
Busts - 1

2nd Round
2003 - Cory Urquhart (bust), Maxim Lapierre (regular)
2004 - None
2005 - Guillaume Latendresse (regular)
2006 - Ben Maxwell(bust), Mathieu Carle (bust)
2007 - PK Subban (star)
2008 - Danny Kristo (developing)
2009 - None
2010/11 - None
2012 - Dalton Thrower (developing) and Sebastian Collberg(developing)
Totals
Star - 1
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 2
Busts - 3

3rd Round
2003 - Ryan O'Byrne (regular)
2004 - Alexei Emelin (regular)
2005 - None
2006 - Ryan White (regular)
2007 - Olivier Fortier (bust), Yannick Weber (regular)
2008 - Steve Quailer (hesitant to say bust here but bust)
2009 - Joonas Nattinen (bust) and Mac Bennett (developing)
2010 - None
2011 - None
2012 - Tim Bozon (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 4
Busts - 3

4th Round
2003 - Corey Locke (bust), Danny Stewart (bust)
2004 - J. T. Wyman (bust)
2005 - Juraj Mikus (bust)
2006 - None
2007 - None
2008 - Jason Missiaen (bust)
2009 - Alexander Avtsin (bust)
2010 - Mark Macmillan (developing), Morgan Ellis (developing)
2011 - Josiah Didier (developing), Oliiver Archambault (bust), Magnus Nygren (developing)
2012 - Brady Vail (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 0
Busts - 7

5th Round
2003 - None
2004 - Mikhail Grabovski (impact)
2005 - Mathieu Aubin (bust)
2006 - Pavel Valentenko (bust)
2007 - Joe Stejskal (bust), Andrew Conboy (bust)
2008 - Maxim Trunev (bust)
2009 - Gabriel Dumont (Developing - Cant say bust or regular at this point)
2010 - Brendan Gallagher (impact)
2011 - Darren Dietz (developing)
2012 - Charles Hudon (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 2
Regulars - 0
Busts - 5

6th Round
2003 - Christopher Heino-Lindberg (bust), Mark Flood (bust)
2004 - Loic Lacasse (bust)
2005 - Matt D'Agostini (regular)
2006 - None
2007 - Nichlas Torp (bust)
2008 - None
2009 - Dustin Walsh (bust)
2010 - None
2011 - Daniel Pribyl (bust)
2012 - Erik Nystrom (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 1
Busts - 6

7th Round (including everything past the 7th round for the years it was there)
2003 - Oskari Korpikari (bust), Jimmy Bonneau (8th round, bust), Jaroslav Halak (impact, 9th round)
2004 - Nicolas Sandor (bust), Gregory Stewart (8th round, bust), Mark Streit (9th round, impact), Alexandre Dulac-Lemelin (9th round, bust)
2005 - Sergei Kostitsyn (regular), Philippe Paquet (bust)
2006 - Cameron Cepek (bust)
2007 - Scott Kishel (bust)
2008 - Patrick Johnson (bust)
2009 - Michael Cichy (bust), Petteri Simila (bust)
2010 - John Westin (bust)
2011 - Colin Sullivan (developing)
2012 - None
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 2
Regulars - 1
Busts - 12

Overall NHL Hit Rate

Over the course of 7 Drafts which totals (over the first two rounds) 420 picks the following is their ratings. 334 are available to be judged.

25 Stars
64 Impact Players
74 Regulars
= 163 NHL "quality players"
171 Busts

86 "Are too early to judge (basically anyone who didnt qualify as an NHL player got popped into here, there might be some busts)"

Hit Rate - Top 2 Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 48.8%
Stars - 7.48%
Impact Players - 19.16%
Regulars - 22.16%
Busts - 51.2%


Last edited by Habiton: 06-01-2013 at 06:40 PM. Reason: Carey Price is a star, recalculated it for that. Added NHL Data
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