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06-06-2013, 10:34 PM
  #5
HockeyAnalysis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
It also ranks Scott Gomez top-40 offensively for the 2011-12 season, six spots ahead of Jason Spezza. Offensively.

So yeah, I can respect the effort... but it seems kind of flawed.
Part of that is because it isn't measuring offense, it is measuring corsi, or shot attempts. Gomez over the years has consistently had pretty good corsi numbers. The thing is, he also has consistently had very poor on-ice shooting percentage numbers. Over the past 6 seasons of 277 forwards with >3000 5v5 minutes, Gomez has the 15th lowest on-ice shooting percentage (see http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...ct&sortdir=ASC). He also has the 8th best corsi for rate (shot attempts by his team per 20 minutes of ice time) over the past 6 seasons (see http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...0&sortdir=DESC).

In English, when Gomez is on the ice his team takes a ton of shots but is terrible at converting them into goals. This is why Gomez generally does well in Corsi metrics but in reality Gomez is a prime example of where corsi fails a player evaluation tool.

I personally prefer a goal based analysis but there are sample size issues with such an analysis so to get something reasonably reliable it is best to use multiple seasons worth of data. Over the past 6 seasons the forwards with the best HARO rating are (from http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...sortdir=DESC):

1. Crosby
2. Semin
3. Malkin
4. H. Sedin
5. Toews
6. Horton
7. Spezza
8. D. Sedin
9. J.P. Dumont
10. Datsyuk
11. Ovechkin
12. Downie
13. Lupul
14. Kunitz
15. Backstrom
15. Stamkos
17. Voracek
18. St. Louis
19. Ryan
20. Vanek

There are a few surprises in that list, but it mostly passes the smell test. The reality is you will never be able to develop a perfect all-encompassing player evaluation statistic and I'll never claim HARO, HARD and HART to be that but I do think it gives a decent overview of whats happening.

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