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06-12-2013, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Rainbow Crash View Post
This is just another case of HF boards overrating prospects. Contrary to belief here, NHL established players>prospects. You aren't going to get a young top-4 D, 2 1sts and a NHL ready center prospect for the #1 pick.

You can't demand a price on potential. Buffalo is taking all the risk in this deal. They could lose Myers, Grigorenko and 2 1sts for a bust. On the other side, even if both 1sts and Grigorenko bust (extremely less likely than 1 player busting), they still end up with a top-2 D in Myers.

Teams make trades because of potential, but they can't demand prices because of potential. Let's do a little analogy:

Let's say that your friend has stock in a new company. It's value right now is only at $100 per stock. However, it could become as valuable as $400 dollars, so he decides to try to sell it at that price. When he does that, the stock broker says, "Well, right now, it's only valued at $100 dollars, so why should you get $400 dollars for it?" You friend responds with, "It has the potential to be worth $400 dollars." The stock broker then replies with "But it isn't worth $400 dollars. When it is worth $400 dollars, you can sell it for $400 dollars. But it only has a value of $100 dollars right now, so that's what you will get for it."

Trades are made under value right now, not potential. You aren't paying for a superstar MacKinnon, you are paying for a prospect MacKinnon.
I don't really get the stock reference. There are way to many variables with stocks to simplify it that much. Instead, lets say your friend holds a bond. The coupon rate is higher than market. If he goes to sell that bond, he gets a premium.

Essentially, the premium is paid because you have a greater shot at making more than market rate with this particular bond.

Same principle here. MacKinnon gives you a much better shot at a superstar than whatever is there at 8. You're going to have to pay a premium to get him.

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