Thread: Confirmed with Link: Subban wins the Norris!!!!! (per Reality)
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06-12-2013, 06:07 PM
  #376
Estimated_Prophet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
True, but it does have some uses. By that I mean determining wether a player has been abnormally lucky or unlucky in a season. An average player that usually shots at 8% and jumps at 16% for a season, doubling his goal totals, didn't magically become a goal scoring machine. He was probably lucky, and is unlikely to repeat the exploit the next year. Meanwhile a player that usually shoots for 10% but only does 7% in a given year didn't become garbage all of a sudden and will most likely bounce back over time. Its a good tool when doing pools, most people just look at the previous season and expect players to continue progressing or regressing assuming the trend that has been going on the past 2 season (or past 10 games, with Leafs fans) will continue.

Comparing shooting % between players of course is completely useless, I agree, since it has almost nothing to do with how well a player shoots.
The stat is just as useless when being used to compare seasons with a single player. A drastic drop in shooting percentage is almost always 1 of 2 things or a combination of both.

1) Quality of linemates/opposition. Even when playing with the same linemates, when your center decides to be a bum that season the results will be reflected in your production and efficiency.

2) Change in play by the player himself. The highest percentage shot is a goalmouth rebound. If a player decides to play more of a perimeter game his % will go down but if he decides to drive the net for rebounds his % will go up.

Luck only plays a significant role in players who don't score many goals. When 2 or 3 goals represent a large percentage of a players total this result is reasonable to assume.

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