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06-12-2013, 08:08 PM
Join Date: Mar 2003
Originally Posted by
Talks to Goalposts
It doesn't really work this way. SH% varies wildly even when those changes you're talking about remain essentially static. Playmaker influence on linemate SH% ends up being very small, as is the variation in opposition shooting% suppressing skill.
What happens is that a player's ability to score on a particular scoring opportunity is influenced heavily by elements out of his control (shooting accuracy varies wildly for shooter and whether or not the opposing goalie makes the correct save selection is important). Goal events aren't common enough in a single season for you to expect the results to even out.
The chance of scoring on a particular shot tends to be 1 in 10 to 1 in 8 for forwards and about 1 in 6 for shots from scoring chance areas. Goals tend to be such low probability events that the random spread in results can be a significant factor.
Players also don't tend to change that much in their shooting locations to cause the shift your suggesting. I think what happens far more often is you remember the goal mouth shots when they go in and forget them when they don't so attribute the changes to that.
With all due respect....I believe that you are way off base. I have read your posts before and I do not remotely agree on this topic.
Once again....no disrespect intended and I don't want to insult you in any way with my opinion on the matter. Just going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
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