Thread: Confirmed with Link: Subban wins the Norris!!!!! (per Reality)
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06-12-2013, 07:51 PM
Talks to Goalposts
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
With all due respect....I believe that you are way off base. I have read your posts before and I do not remotely agree on this topic.

Once disrespect intended and I don't want to insult you in any way with my opinion on the matter. Just going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
Well, you can have your opinion. But to the extent I've studied the matter I don't think your interpretation stands up to scrutiny. Its not an implausible opinion, but just because its plausible doesn't mean its really reflects what's going on.

If we're talking just Subban, we could say there was a situtational thing as he started getting feed by Markov on the PP, and Markov on the PP has a demonstrable impact on his linemates shooting effectiveness. But most situations don't have that kind of swing in linemate talent. Even playing with Crosby tends to have a relatively small impact compared to native skill.

The thing I think that needs to be realized is the biggest variable on whether a chance becomes a goal is what the goalie does. That's something almost entirely out of the shooter's hands.

To illustrate the point, there is no more stable combination of linemates and style of play for a goal scorer that Daniel Sedin with Henrik. His shot rate has remain consistently in between 9-10 per hour for the last 6 seasons 5 on 5. During that time his SH% has fluctuated massively from 7.5% to 13.2% per season.

Or look at Kunitz, Neal and Dupuis after joining the Pens. Their % went up only a %point each compared to career average playing with the best playmakers in the league.

Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 06-12-2013 at 09:41 PM.
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