Thread: Confirmed with Link: Subban wins the Norris!!!!! (per Reality)
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06-13-2013, 09:26 AM
Talks to Goalposts
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
How does shooting percentage depend on the goalie if most shooters face 30 or 40 goalies per year? Does it not average out?
Look at the game not from the shooter's perspective but the goalies.

Think of it as a game of rock paper scissors, but one where the goalie wins 5 out of 6 times. The player makes a split second shot selection, the goalie makes a save selection simultaneously.

Modern save techniques make almost all shots potentially stoppable if you make the right choice executed correctly. Except for the rare unstoppable chance, for a goal to happen either the goalie, screwed up, guessed wrong, or something weird happened on the play like a deflection, causing the correct save choice to fail.

For the shooter, most of this is out of your hands. There are skills to maximize your chances of success(release, velocity, better location etc). But even for the best its like rolling a 6 dice and winning on a 6. Even a point blank one-timer fails 2/3rds of the time.

This is Patrick Roy's gift of probabilistic based goaltending to the league and why the 80's with their Oilers who could score on 1 out of 5 shots aren't coming back.

So when your dealing with low percentage events, sheer randomness is going to predominant for relatively small samples. For a ~20 goal scorer who gets his goals on about 3 chances per game, a season isn't long enough for things to entirely even out.

This is related to how a goaltender can take over or lose a playoff series. Go on a run of making the right choices like Anderson did and you can beat a team that heavily outplayed yours overall. But that doesn't mean you won't start making mistakes the next series. To a very real extent, the Habs and Pens didn't face the same goalie in this post season. By same token, Rask was all but invincible against the Penguins but got beaten 4 times by the Hawks last night.

Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 06-13-2013 at 09:33 AM.
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