Thread: Confirmed with Link: Subban wins the Norris!!!!! (per Reality)
View Single Post
06-14-2013, 12:21 PM
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: The Wild West
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,049
vCash: 500
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The arguments of TtG follow from statistics 101.

If a forward with 9% shooting skill takes 200 shots a year, you expect 18 goals from him. But the standrad deviation will be 4.2 goals, and he will be off by that amount or more every third year (on average). Youvthen also need to add noise due to injuries, for example the years where he only plays 40 games.
I might be wrong but with a standard deviation of 4 goals wouldn't you expect him to score between 14 and 22 goals two thirds of the time, less than 14 goals 1/6 of the time and more than 22 goals 1/6 of the time.

I think we are saying the same thing, just expressing it differently.

HCH is offline   Reply With Quote