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06-20-2013, 06:41 AM
  #427
25get
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
there's a lot of speculation here from all sides...

from my POV:

- it was clear that Subban was not only a very good player at the time (worth well more, pure market value, than the bridge offer we forced him to take), but that his career trajectory & work ethic pointed to a player who would continue improving (i predicted Norris caliber, though not so soon mind you... a hockey expert should have seen his continued rise better than a casual fan)
You are right about PK improving.
But his PPP with Markov was the biggest improvement.
He is going to continue to be a top-10 d-men (most likely top-5) for years to go.
But Markov was the biggest reason PK improved his performance.

Remove Markov from the equation and PK get 15-20 PPP and is not even nominated for Norris.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
- it was well established, league-wide, that players with similar impact at his age-contract status, often got rewarded with better than the "bridge" contract, despite the teams perogative to do so
So did Myers and regressed.

But you need to bring things in perspective.
When Habs were able to deal with PK again, Gomez was still on the books.
Actually, it was expected that Gomez would stay on the books for the whole season.
It was Gomez case that ended up the NHL to change the rules.
But from MB point of view, everything was already in motion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
- no one here was in the negotiation room, though some do have access to information from people very close to the team... the 4.5-5.5 range was repeated from just about any source to speak of as to what Subban's camp was looking for on a multi-year deal. I don't think it's at all likely that the reason the team stuck to the "bridge" was because he was asking for a market premium from a player with his numbers/usage (i.e in the 6-6.5M$ ball park.. based on what he HAD done).
So it was 4.5-5.5 (no proof here): for one year, two years, five years?

If PK was looking for 5M for 5 years, he should be OK with 6M X 8 years.
As far as we know, PK could have asked for 5.5 for one year.

Any link to prove he wanted x for y years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
the team did "win" in the short-term because they forced a stud young player to play for a very small $$ amount compared to players of his ability/impact (AT THE TIME) & to lesser players his age/contract status (think MDZ).
There was two problems: PK needed to improve his play and the perception off the ice. He did it with flying colors.

He should expect results in his next contract.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
\the long-term impact is at best going to be only somewhat negative (we lose 2-4 years of Subban in the 4.5-5.5M$ range, & his next contract, which will likely have to be a HUGE payday, now coincides with the 2nd contracts for Galch/Gallagher/Tinordi -let's hope the team is still swinging the bridge hammer to all new RFA's- & Eller/Emelin/Diaz will all be on new, higher contracts).
For the other players, we will see.
Habs is not a cheap team as shown with Gomez and Kaberle (to be seen).

At 6M, PK break even. He will most likely get 6.5M but for a longer term.
If PK stops to play PP with Markov and gets a 50-55 points season, what happens?
Markov - Diaz did pretty well before PK came back.

Next season will tell us a lot more.
Give me on d-men who did not get his best numbers with Markov.
Markov-Diaz was very good before PK came back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
At worst, he's brilliant next year (in norris contention again) a bit jaded, and forces the issue demanding to be paid as one of the top 2-4 dmen in the league (7M$+)...
At worst, he gets 50-55 points while Karlsson gets 75 points and Letang gets 85 points.
Given their respective performance, you need to hope that Karlsson and Letang are injured.

BTW, I think PK is better than them in defense but we all know that offense numbers are more important.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
then it becomes a massive blunder. Timing is a big part of putting together a championship caliber team and riding it through a few
seasons... having dman playing at/near Norris level from 26-28 @ a cap hit under 6M$ (which is what we would have had... maybe even under 5M$) is a GREAT way to milk the cap for all it's worth.
That cap hit would have been for 5 years at most...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
Habs weren't going to be a serious contender this year, likely not next year either... better player assessment of Subban (and there were more than enough signs that he was worth the 4.5-5.5M$ it would have taken for a multi-year deal...) would have given the team a much better cap flexibility situation in MB's year 3-4 & maybe 5, exactly when a core of Price, Pacioretty, Subban, Galch, Eller, Gallagher, Tinordi, Beaulieu would be theoretically be ready to take a big step forward.
Previous year, PK was not playing at Norris level.
In 2011-12, he played 24 minutes per game not 26-28 minutes despite Markov not being there.
That's two minutes more that Gorges and 6 minutes more than Diaz and Emelin who were both rookies.

Let's wait and see.
At this point, you are saying that PK will get 7M.
If he is worth 7M, might as well wait and see.
It goes both ways: PK could want 6.5-7M but can he repeat again and get the Norris again.
Worst case, he is and would get 7M.
But he could as well end up drop for a year and get only 6M.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
Being a GM is all about risk management... in this case, I think it was obvious from the start that they put their emphasis in the wrong place, and the end result is that they got burned for it. No foresight/hindsight required, just better player assessment.
Hindsight is a prerogative that you have.
But managing SCap is not your task. Neither managing PK.
I really hope that PK will become a regular Norris winner.

Given this, I would be ready to give him 6-6.5 for 7 or 8 years.
Now, it you think that he is worth 7-8M per year, then we should revisit this in a few years.

I want to see PK with us for the next 9 years.
Hopefully, they can agree with a deal around 6-6.5M for 8 years.
If PK wants 7M per year, then we should wait and see.

Worst case, he gets and offer sheet a la Weber at 7.8M.
The only difference: Weber was offered this deal expecting the Predators could not match (including the bonuses).
Actually, I was surprised to see the Pred match it.
Obviously we can.
I would be curious to see the Flyers do an offer sheet like that with Couturier, Schenn and Giroux as RFA and us having 10M more then the Flyers available...

I think the basic point is the following: we might have sign him at 5M but at the end of the day, we will sign him at 6-6.5M for a longer time.
I need to understand: most of your arguments are based on PK wanting a 4.5-5.5M per year for 5 years (at least).
Any proof of that?

Habs management wants to keep PK and he wants to stay with us.

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