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07-03-2013, 12:18 PM
  #777
Jaded-Fan
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Some here need to get a bit of reality tempered by some good common sense predictions of where the cap will be in coming years.

First a bit of history. Revenues, and therefore the cap, has gone up about 55% between 2005 and 2013, an average of 7% per year, since the 2005 lockout:

Previous NHL Salary caps:
2012-13: $70.2 million
2011-12: $64.3 million
2010-11: $59.4 million
2009-10: $56.8 million
2008-09: $56.7 million
2007-08: $50.3 million
2006-07: $44 million
2005-06: $39 million

Revenues have never gone down. Now let us project forward. Assume only a 5% growth in revenues, not the 7% we have averaged. Granted the player's share changed in the new CBA, but still:


2013-14: $64.3 million
2014-15: $64.3 million
2015-16: $66.1 million
2016-17: $69.5 million
2017-18: $73.1 million
2018-19: $75.9 million
2019-20: $80.9 million
2020-21: $85.1 million
2021-22: $89.5 million

Assume a 6% growth, still under what we have averaged:

2013-14: $64.3 million
2014-15: $64.3 million
2015-16: $68.2 million
2016-17: $72.3 million
2017-18: $76.6 million
2018-19: $80.1 million
2019-20: $85.1 million
2020-21: $90.3 million
2021-22: $96.0 million

Crosby, Malkin and Letang are signed for the next nine years for a total of $24.45 million. Right now, starting the season after this coming season when Letang's cap more than doubles, that is 39.5% of the cap. But as soon as the next year that almost certain drops, likely to something like 35%, the year after to 33%, and so on. By the time Malkin's and Letang's contracts end those three will take up about 25% of the cap. And each will still at the tail ends of their prime in their early 30's.

People need to get some perspective but instead act like these players will take up 40% of the cap forever. That changes in the Pens favor, given no lingering injuries which is admittedly the chance any team takes with these, as soon as a couple years down the road.

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