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07-03-2013, 06:51 PM
A soupçon of nutmeg
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Originally Posted by HabsProspectsExpert View Post
First and foremost, I want to make it clear that I am a big fan of Timmins and I believe he is one of the best chief scouts in the league.
However, I believe he made a slight miss evaluation on prospects playing in college leagues (NCAA, USHL, BCHL and comparable leagues). In fact, he overrated them, particularly in comparison with CHL (LHJMQ-WHL-OHL) prospects. Those missed evaluations made him repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Here, I am comparing players coming from the CHL and players coming from college leagues that were drafted between round 3 to 7. Comparing the two first rounds was irrelevant, because those players had enough exposure to be evaluated properly, CHL players and USA college players can be compared directly in U17 and U18 tournaments. In fact, we have to give Timmins credits for his selections of college leagues players with top picks, except the bust that was Fischer he was able to get McDonagh, Pacioretty, Kristo and Tinordi.
You will see that with our late round picks, the rate of relative success is convincingly contrasting between CHL players and college leagues players.

3rd (79) - Mac Bennett (D)
3rd (86) - Steve Quailer (F)
4th (97) - Josiah Didier (D)
4th (113) - Mark MacMillan (F)
5th (133) - Joe Stejskal (D)
5th (142) - Andrew Conboy (F)
6th (169) - Dustin Walsh (F)
7th (192) - Scott Kishel (D)
7th (198) - Colin Sullivan (D)
7th (199) - Mike Cichy (F)
7th (229) - Philippe Paquet (D)
7th (206) - Patrick Johnson (F)
Maybe Bennett and ...? could play at least a game in the NHL; 1.5/12
Result: 12,5%

3rd (65) - Olivier Fortier (F)
3rd (66) - Ryan White (F)
3rd (73) - Yannick Weber (D)
4th (108) - Olivier Archambault (F)
4th (117) - Morgan Ellis (D)
5th (130) - Mathieu Aubin (F)
5th (138) - Darren Dietz (D)
5th (139) - Gabriel Dumont (F)
5th (147) - Brendon Gallagher (F)
6th (190) - Matt D'Agostini (F)
7th (199) - Cameron Cepek (D)
White, Weber, Dumont, D'Agostini and Gallagher have already played in the NHL, and probably at least one between Ellis and Dietz will play in the NHL; 6/11
Result: 54,5%

Many wasted picks... Teams that are active signing graduated players from the NCAA have arguably better success then us with our College/NCAA players.
Also, I just want to add that drafting more European players with our late rounds pick could have also been an interesting possibility instead.
In the 2012 draft, Trevor Timmins seemed to have learned from his mistakes selecting no player from college league with his lower picks. He picked Bozon(3rd), Vail(4th), Hudon(5th) and Nystrom(6th). With Bozon's incredible season and Hudon being able to make team Canada U20 with an other year of eligibility remaining, Timmins' lower picks in the 2012 draft is among his best selections since he has been hired.


* By the way, I already know that it is normal for NCAA players to have slower development and that they are more 7th picks in the NCAA side's . But still... the gap is still considerable.
Well, the point's already been made that the contract rule gives the team some flexibility to let some prospects hothouse in the NCAA longer than it could with CHLers.

But I think the numbers are a bit skewed by adding the 6th and 7th rounders. The percentage of those picks becoming anything is pretty close to 0. In the 2005-2011 tranch, you have 6 of those NCAA type picks versus only 2 CHL. If you just eliminate those picks altogether, then I'm not so sure that the case is as strong that drafting NCAA types is a mistake.

Going by your 1.5 NCAA assessment, the ratio is actually 1.5 out of 6 -- which is 25%. I won't argue about Macmillan or Quailer, but if we round up the .5 number (how can you have half of a hockey player that might or might not play / has or has not played in the NHL?), then the percentage is 33%. Not bad. Not bad at all.

With the CHLers, the ratio is 5 out of 9. That's an outstanding number for rounds 3 to 5. I'm not sure that's an indication of NCAA types versus CHLers or an indication of good drafting. In other words, I'm not convinced by these numbers that, in principle, drafting NCAA types in rounds 3 to 5 is inherently worse than drafting CHLers. I incline to the view that it just indicates that Timmins and friends have had very good success with CHLers in those rounds. So, I would explore the argument that it says more about those specific drafts than it does about taking NCAA types versus CHLers in general in those rounds.

Anyway, we'll see whether there is a trend going forward. Another potentially interesting breakdown would be with the Europeans. The Habs were pretty weak for a while after A. Savard left, but there may be a trend of them looking more to Sweden in particular.

Interesting thread. Thanks for putting together the numbers.

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