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07-03-2013, 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
Basically Fenwick* is how many shots you take minus how many you give up. So it's like goal, or run differential, or +/-. As your differential goes up the amount of scoring chances you get increases. It makes sense because if you have a high differential you're most likely playing better than your opponent, and getting more chances.

So basically your quality of shots/scoring chances is a derivative of your shot +/-. We all know there's games where the one team has like 40 shots but 20 are from the point, but that evens out over time.

So you can pretty much gauge the quality of shots a team faced by going by their shot differential over the course of a season. The Flyers had an average number of shots, and allowed about an average number of shots, so you can say Bryz saw around league average quality shots/scoring chances. Now that's not 100% true because the shortened season will probably throw some variance in there.

*Hockey needs a site like Fangraphs, and they need to rename all these stats to something useful
I disagree. Marginalizing scoring chances to an average is inherently flawed IMO. Much like shots, scoring chances are also not created equal.

Over a career, maybe thats enough attempts to marginalize, but even a season for me is not enough.

I hear from enough hockey coaches, players, ect saying things like "we can't give up the opportunity from there, or chances like that, ect". This tells me that there is more to the story.

Now, I can see Fenwick being an indicator for how good of a puck possession game you play....

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