Part IX: Free Agency Signing Period Discussion and Rumors
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07-05-2013, 07:05 PM
Join Date: Mar 2010
After the end of the last thread I was thinking about Hamonic vs Schenn, and how much better Hamonic actually was, and if we would be better with Hamonic than Schenn... so I did some digging:
In reply to Hamonic vs Schenn:
I know a lot of people are reluctant to accept advanced stats, but I do believe they are useful when all considered together, with other things considered as well.
TOI per 60: 18.16 Rel QOC: 0.991, QOC: 0.732, Relative Corsi: -11.4, Off Zone start: 45.9 Off Zone finish: 43.8
SH TOI: 2.44 PP TOI: 1.14
PPG: (last 3 years) 0.33, 27 PPY
Hits: 59 Blocked Shots: 109
TOI per 60: 17.88 Rel QOC: 0.683, QOC: 1.320, Relative Corsi: 6.9, Off Zone start: 45.8 Off Zone finish: 47.8
SH TOI: 2.49 PP TOI: 0.21
PPG: (last 3 years) 0.26, 21 PPY
Hits: 187 Blocked Shots: 102
So Schenn faced harder opposition this year than Hamonic, Schenn had the hardest mins of any Flyers defender (0.683) while Harmonic was second on the Islanders (0.991). They also played almost the same amount of minutes, 15 seconds difference per 60. Schenn also got far less PP time, and they were even on PK mins.
Yet even though Schenn had even/harder minutes, he performed better defensively, (according to advanced stats) with a better Relative Corsi by a long way, and +2 on zone starts, compared to Hamonics -2.1.
(Harmonic faced better players compared to rest of Islanders D, but not overall, he also played the hardest minutes of his career this year, and his stats went down)
I know a shortened season is not the best comparison, and it was arguably Schenns best year in the NHL, and Hamonics worst, (according to advanced stats) but it seems Schenn was better than Hamonic this year, though he scores about 6PPY less than Hamonic.
(With 1min per game less PP time, in fact, over three years Schenn has 1PPP, Hamonic 13PPP, so 5PPY by Hamonic come on the PP when adjusted to GP, if even strength PPY only were counted, they would be exactly even... though Ofc Hamonic has earned PP, Schenn not.)
If past years are looked at as well, Schenns performance this year defensively was better than any of Hamonics 3, and Hamonic has never played as hard a minutes as Schenn this year.
If Schenn keeps playing as he did this year, he is a better D man than Hamonic, if he reverts to Schenn of 2010-11, they are about even, Hamonic edging it, if Schenn goes back to 11-12 then Hamonic is hands down better.
Don't get me wrong, Hamonic is a great player, and has been more consistent, and I would love him on the Flyers, but if Schenn plays like he has shown he can, they are far more even than people may think. (That cap hit he just got increased his value though!)
It must also be considered who there D partners were:
Schenn played a lot with Kimmo, which could inflate his stats, but also played great with Lauridsen and Rosehill at the end of the year, mainly with Flyers top line.
Hamonic played with Macdonald pretty much exclusively, and with NYI top line.
Now, Timonen is better than Macdonald, but Macdonald is no slouch and has been their top D man in minutes played since 2010-11.
The way I see it:
Best Schenn has played in career > best Hamonic has played
~ Schenn has played < ~ Hamonic has played
Worst Schenn has played < worst Hamonic played
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