Most Valuable Oiler #5
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07-12-2013, 10:35 AM
Now with 9% more zen
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Hockey Hell
Originally Posted by
IMO players who aren't in the league yet can easily have more value than guys who are.
I'd move Smid/Gagner just for the rights to draft McDavid in 2 years. I'd also move either of them for any of the top 4 this past draft.
Generally your opinion would be wrong.
Lets phrase it in simplest terms. Gagner and Smid are actual NHL players of actual NHL value and worth. Lets say you're an agent. You have a choice between making 10% cut off of these players contracts or deferring several years to make a future cut off some kid thats years away. What agent would defer 10% of say 8M annual income starting immediately for the prospect of an income that won't be able to achieve that annual rate of return even optimally for about 10yrs? Given best case scenario. Worst case being never making a dime off that player. Then consider all the years you waited for that prospect to give you any foreseeable return and how much behind you are on accrued value.
Present established value trumps prospective value except in very special instances. Connor Mcdavid may prove to be that exception. But Klefbom and J Schultz are not likely in that prospective league.
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