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07-12-2013, 11:35 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Hockey Hell
Originally Posted by
I don't think that applies in this day and age with modern scouting for the top guys like McDavid. Even if he's overhyped like Tavares, he's going to end up an ELITE player. One scout said he'd have taken McDavid over Jones/MacKinnon/anyone else in this last draft (if he were eligible). I would agree that you're right for most prospects being like boom/bust stocks, but the top guys are exceptions. They're much more sure things than in the past.
If I were an agent then it would be different due to ELCs and the nature of the salary cap. A top pick, especially if it's a forward, usually drastically exceed the value of their ELCs by the time it's up. A much bigger factor that highlights the difference between agent salaries and player value is the distribution of salaries due to the cap. Four 2.5m players aren't worth anywhere near Crosby, but they'd make the agent the same.
Thanks for reading and looking at that. As you know I qualified McDavid being an exception to the rule. But Klefbom is not anywhere close to a McDavid stock. I am somewhat interested given that why you would vote Klef ahead of say Smid. Given what I've stated would you change your view on this?
Monetarily theres a strong point that Smid represents more value now and going forward. Probability stands that an established NHL player holds more value than a lower first round pick thats never played an NHL game and that has had significant injury trouble.
btw. Everest speaks of this type of thing a lot, on how difficult it is for a young player to overcome a lost year. An injured year. The leap such a player must make to get back on track is just huge. Think of prospect development as a continually moving treadmill or a pitstop. All your competitors keep going. A player can find themselves behind in development in a hurry.
re: the Crosby comment we're not talking a Crosby prospect in this thread, we're not talking a McDavid prospect in this thread. Take note that you are having to go to outlier instances to support your stance. Wherein the normal curve of NHL players vs prospects supports what I'm stating.
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