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07-12-2013, 02:44 PM
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I'm going to chime in again, hopefully as peacemaker.... I think you guys are both going to extremes to make your point.

Replacment: ' I wouldn't use SPCT to judge a goalie', should probably be rephrased to be "I wouldn't *only* use SPCT to judge a goalie, you need to use your eyes as well".

Pro-Dubnyk Guys: "SPCT put him at exactly Xth place in the league, therefore he's the Xth best goalie"... also way too simplistic.

Consider these points:
1) Team psychology point 1: I think anyone who has played the game know that there is a different team reaction to a *bad* goal vs an *unstoppable* goal, regardless of how it affects one's SPCT. It is an emotional game and having a goalie that makes the expected saves on low quality chances matters.

2) Team psychology point 2: Teams get a boost from a guy that is always making it look easy... they play at ease, don't "go fishing" on their checks to prevent every shot... angle the players outside, allow the easy shots to come, knowing the goalie will swallow it up (Holdit Holtby). In contrast, a team can get a huge boost from a 9-bell save. (Cujo-Marchant) Both can work... but it should be clear a goalie's demeanor changes the psychology of his team

3) Mathematically there is very little difference between 0.885 and 0.920 SPCT..... it amounts to about 1 goal per game assuming 35 shots.. BUT... the difference is much less than say, kicking out 4-5 fat juicy rebounds during a game, now all of a sudden you have 39 shots against because YOU CREATED 4 more. FACT: Your SPCT on those 4 fat juicy rebounds is ALWAYS going to be less than the 4 shots that created them... think 50%, so that's 2 goals. What's worse... another goalie (or even YOU if you were on your game) wouldn't have to face those VERY DIFFICULT 2nd shots AT ALL, because they knifed the first one into the netting or swallowed it for a faceoff.

4) Timing: SPCT could be WAY more useful if there was a context. How about SPCT when the score is within 1? SPCT in the third period of a close game? or the last 2 mins? SPCT in the first 10 mins of a game? etc... All of these are relevant times when a team needs their goalie to play their best. These are the moments that win and lose games.

Anyway... I think Dubnyk's SPCT tells us there is plenty of talent there to work with. But to my eye, it was not a dominating .920 type of year. I'd sooner have Grant Fuhr and his 0.885 "money" goaltending because he got BETTER when the game was close or on the line. I'm not sure I can say the same about Dubnyk (yet).

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