Thread: GDT: FA/Trade Talk
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07-13-2013, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
Wow, Beck scores 3 goals and 4 assist in his first 7 NHL games, but your projecting he only has 5 goals and 6 assist in his next 75? I don't follow that logic.

If your projections are correct, we're picking in the top 4 again. 185 goals would be the 2nd lowest goal total for us in our history. Even as much as we sucked last season, we still would have finished at a prorated 190 goals.
You missed statistical notes in the stats and you saw what you wanted to see.

a) that is a simplistic projection of season end stats. Hornqvist if healthy is not going to score 7 goals. Beck only provided a minimal number of games, if anything he should be a ? He could be a 20 goal scorer, or he could have a sophomore slump.

b) this is a projection for 75 games. which gives some wiggle room for goals. Some players ended their season early to heal. Some were early call ups.

c) We have too many ?'s Forsberg, Jones, Ekholm, hell Beck.

When I said I project 220-230 goals that 185 is the start the rest has to be filled in with educated observation

185 goals

Plus, expected increase of 15 goals from a healthy Hornqvist. I think 22 goals from Hornqvist is reasonable.

200 goals

Now we look at the 3 defensemen, Jones, Ekholm, Bartley. All null sets because there isn't enough statistical data. I go conservative with these 3 and go with a combined 10 goals. Could I see more? of course. Housley is drooling about putting Jones with Weber on the PP.

210 goals

Now comes the Forsberg question. My question is this can he score 15 goals? Way coaching is talking about him, yes.

225 goals

I like to think that's a reasonable explanation of the goals.

What will hurt this is if Spaling leaves the team. There goes 15 goals which leads to my question of can Beck replace Spaling. If he can great. But it kills the depth in Milwaukee unless Watson fills out.

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