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07-16-2013, 04:21 PM
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This post makes me look smarter than it did back in January!

Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe View Post
OK sure, but let's have a discussion.

How much is Subban worth this year? I would say somewhere around 4 million. He has talent, and does help the team win. I also find him to be inconsistent at playing an uptempo game that he proves he is capable of.

Now if you agree with my description, do you see him getting better, staying the same, or getting worse? I personally see him getting better. He has the tools to be a #1 and he does seem like a dedicated player. I do not think he is there yet, based on last year, but I do believe he is not far away either. With the chance of him being able to reach his potential this season is what I think is throwing off the negotiations. If we take it year by year salary for multiple contracts, I see it like this:

2 year contract:
2013 ---------> 4,000,000$
2013-2014 ---> 5,000,000$
Cap hit of 4,500,000$

This to me does not benefit Subban or the Habs for that matter If he does pan out, we will now need to sign him where he might be able to demand 7 million a year, assuming he is a #1 D with Norris Candidate in his repertoire. At first I thought he should get a 2 year deal like Max and Carey got, but he really isn't in the same position they were after the ELC. Subban has done more and proved more than they did at this point. Max was having some confidence issues and Carey was fighting with Halak for the starting role. Subban last year took on some of the best players in the NHL and didn't do that as bad individually compared to how bad the whole team finished.

3 year contract:
2013 ---------> 4,000,000$
2013-2014 ---> 5,000,000$
2014-2015 ---> 6,000,000$
Cap hit of 5,000,000$

Not so bad I guess, keeps him on RFA status and we do this all again.

4 year contract:
2013 ---------> 4,000,000$
2013-2014 ---> 5,000,000$
2014-2015 ---> 6,000,000$
2015-2016 ---> 6,500,000$
Cap hit of 5,375,000$

I don't like him getting to UFA status in his prime. This could mean overpayment. With a star player who is possibly at the best point in his career... He gets a lot of cards on the table in this negotiation.

6 year contract:
2013 ---------> 4,000,000$
2013-2014 ---> 4,500,000$
2014-2015 ---> 5,000,000$
2015-2016 ---> 6,500,000$
2016-2017 ---> 7,000,000$
2018-2019 ---> 7,500,000$
Cap hit of 5,750,000$

Now based on this contract we have him signed until he is 30 with a very manageable 5.75 million cap hit. Provided he becomes a star this will be a great discount to have. At this cap hit he is tied with Markov for 15th highest cap hit by a defensemen.

Subban was 28th in scoring by a defensemen last season, which in essence makes him a #1 D for points since the league has 30 #1Ds technically (obviously a flawed way of looking at things, but it works for my argument) and the 28th highest cap hit for a defensemen is 4.6 million, which is not that far off with next years 4 million in salary for Subban. Edit: He was also 17th in ATOI last year for defensemen.

Right now I think I may be titling towards a long term deal because I have faith in Subban. I realize this all comes crashing down if he doesn't reach the ceiling a lot of us envision for him but then again 5.75 for Subban can't be that bad from what we have scene him do already.

I'm just eager for him to sign, we are a much better team with him in the lineup than not.

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