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07-16-2013, 11:25 PM
Join Date: Feb 2013
As I wrote before, the problem with all those stats is that hockey is, in its very nature, a chaotic game. A bunch of micro-events, each with a somewhat unpredictable outcome, and then all stiched together.
-The puck is small, travels very fast and is less regular than a ball
-Players move fast and have very little time to react
-There is very little 'memory' or 'inertia' involved. One bounce by the puck can change a PP threat into a breakaway and a goal for the other team. All within 4 or 5 seconds.
At least they are shooting 40-50 times each game, with around 25-30 shots making it to the net. So that is OK with stats.
So yeah, I wouldn't throw away 'advanced' stats just by princple. But I wouldn't make management moves based on that alone either.
From this, I formulate two interesting observations:
1- An actual descriptive simulation (i.e. the NHL video games) may, at some point in the future, achieve better predictive capability than stats.
2- The only other sports I can think of as being as chaotic as hockey are fighting sports such as boxing or MMA. And a lot of people like both hockey and fighting...
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