Contrary to popular belief, Paul Holmgren drafts well
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07-18-2013, 09:12 AM
Join Date: Nov 2010
Originally Posted by
The problem I have with this analysis is that it uses # of games played in the NHL. The Flyers by their own admission take forwards over defenseman early (though they didn't this year) because they are easier to get a read on.
If you really want to make a more meaningful analysis, add in average draft position by round, break it down games played by draft round, add some kind of impact figure like points/draft pick and TOI/draft pick and I'm sure there are other categories that could be added. Otherwise, under your analysis, drafting JvR at #2 with his 244 GP is better than drafting PK Subban at #43 with his 202 GP.
Does Holmgren draft well? Maybe, but this analysis didn't prove that.
Your right, games played is a bad way of judging a teams ability to draft. I don't think there is any good way of doing it. Lets look at your example of Montreal and PK Subban. Montreal looks great for drafting Subban in 2007 in the 2nd round, but go back one year earlier and they took draft bust David Fischer 2 picks ahead of Claude Giroux. Are they a good drafting team for taking Subban or a bad drafting team for taking Fischer? Detroit gets a lot of credit for picking Datsyuk but isn't that really luck? Detroit picked 7 players ahead of Datsyuk who they must of had rated higher and only one, Jiri Fischer in the 1st rd, played any thing significant in the NHL (one other guy played 2 games). Are they great at drafting for finding Datsyuk or bad for whiffing on the other 6 including two 2nd rd picks. Are the Flyers a bad drafting team cause they haven't found any late round gems or a good drafting team because they haven't had any first round busts? Ranking a teams draft ability is completely subjective and there is no stat or formula that can be made to quantify it.
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