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07-18-2013, 06:45 PM
Grant McCagg
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,698
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Its not hard and fast for 18, but generally speaking guys who make it do a little better than people are saying

19 is a real crunch time though, everyone who is anyone in the NHL level is an offensive dynamo at that stage, including Bickell and Simmonds (Lucic was basically ppg at 18 years, and a 30, not 20 goal man).

In Biggs' case he was under ppg at 19, which should be something of a red flag. In the draft +2 year even the most marginal 4th line NHL players tend to score better than he did at that point in junior.

Now we can make allowances for if he's struggling a bit due to being a big man adjusting to his size, and that powerforwards do tend to get shafted in point scoring compared to true offensive contribution. But if he's playing with a center like Domi in the CHL at 18, its pretty reasonable to expect him to produce against his peer group. Biggs is exactly the kind of overwhelming performance you don't want to see in your prized 1st round pick.
You are making an incorrect generalization - lots of bottom line players in the NHL weren't ppg players in the OHL - even some top six players who play a robust style. You are putting much too emphasis on points. 53 points as an OHL rookie isn't a red was Biggs' lack of toughness that was the main red flag for me.

Bickell scored 55 points the year after he was drafted, and 53 in his final junior year. Clarkson wasn't close to being a ppg player (39 points at Mac's age, 54 at age 19), Neil scored 55 points at Mac's age, and he was a second-year player. Andrew Shaw had 36 and 54 points his last two junior seasons.

Your assertion is simply not factual.

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