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07-18-2013, 10:50 PM
  #419
NotProkofievian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 417 View Post
I think I pointed out that it was just a hypothetical situation, which is pretty much all anyone is going off of here.

Furthermore...I think 8.5M per year 5-6 years from now for a Norris caliber dman is rather conservative.

I didn't cherry pick any argument...I presented two fictious scenarios and asked which you would prefer, both have their advantages and disadvantages

The point was to show that either scenario has its risks/rewards
Yeah, and both have their likelihoods: a fact you didn't consider in your argument. It's not inconsequential either, when you're predicting a value which is already sky high to be even higher 5 years from now.

Every scenario has a risk and a reward associated with it. The risk of the bridge contract was that Subban was going to put up a retarded season and break the bank. That much is absolutely going to happen. Bergevin's wager didn't hit. This is also completely ignoring the other factors that went into this negotiation which may influence Subban's decision to sign an offer sheet. Yeah yeah, nothing personal, just business. We'll see. Business seemed to have a different meaning for Desharnais than it did Subban.

This point has nothing to do with you, but I thought I'd bring it up: some people have made the argument that this deal will be cheaper in the long run positing much the same scenario as you just did. Some of those people in turn have made the argument that the low-ball offer caused Subban to go super srs and win a Norris trophy. The implication is that this wouldn't have happened if we gave him a contract resembling his contribution to the team to date. However, this is never factored into the analysis. Subban always ends up signing an 8 million dollar contract just to make the argument work. It's ********.

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