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07-21-2013, 10:14 AM
  #76
CS
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This is the first time in a while that I'm going to disagree with Meltzer. That disagreement comes with an asterisk though.

I think if we went to the bargaining table with Read right now, we might be able to get him around 3.5 on a long-term extension. I'm talking about a commitment of 5+ years.

Even that's a maybe though. Read is worth 4.5 on the market easy. We've seen this, and if he doesn't regress next season, he will command that. This is a kid who has been, for all intents and purposes, a 50 point player playing under an ELC contract into his prime. He's going to want to get a money contract because this upcoming contract is his only money contract.

That said...I also expected Couturier to get 2.00-2.50 and Schenn to get 2.75-3.25 and Giroux to get 7.00-8.00. So I guess we'll see where this goes. Our projected lineup next year is looking more like this:

Hartnell (4.75) - Giroux (8.28) - Voracek (4.25)
Schenn (X.XX) - Lecavalier (4.50) - Simmonds (3.98)
xxxxxxxxxx - Couturier (1.75) - Read (X.XX)
Rinaldo (0.75) - Laughton (0.93) - Talbot (1.75)
Rosehill (0.68)

Timonen (X.XX) - Schenn (3.60)
Streit (5.25) - Coburn (4.50)
Gustafsson (X.XX) - Grossmann (3.50)
xxxxxxxxxx

Mason (X.XX)
Emery (X.XX)

Honestly, I'm wondering if a one-year deal to Timonen is more important than Read's extension should he decide to continue playing. We definitely can't do both.

We have 48.47m locked into the above roster without considering any re-signings. Most important is to have our goalies locked up. Let's say that best case scenario happens and Mason plays great but not Vezina level. Maybe we lock him up at 3.00m and get Emery to stay for 2.00m. However this plays out, we're looking at something like 5.00m to goaltending.

So, now, after goaltending, our 48.47m is looking more like 53.47m. Next priority is obviously Schenn and Gustafsson.

Since I assume we're in discussions with Schenn about a bridge contract now, perhaps he goes at 2.50m instead of the 3.00m I was thinking. Let's put Gustafsson at 2.50m on a multi-year deal which is low since I think he might get 3.00m and above if he performs well. So another 5.00m as a low-end ballpark estimate on Schenn and Gustafsson.

That puts us at 58.47m; that puts us 5.83m away from the 64.30m cap from this year. Granted we will see the cap raise, but unless you're looking at the cap raising roughly 5.00m, we're not going to be able to fit Timonen and Read even in a best-case scenario let alone considering that I low-end ballparked every estimate so far in this response.

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