Thread: Salary Cap: The Oilers and the cap
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07-23-2013, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Good analysis. I think you'd need 12% growth on that given a sustained 5 cent drop in the CAD to get to a $70M cap. Regardless, you won't see the cap at that number. I can't see it getting over $68 M.

Where the team stands now, using one of the compliance buyouts on Belanger looks like a weak move. Hopefully MacT can shed some salary.
My calculation was actually based on a 5 cent drop from the $62.6M. That would mean an effective cap of $61.6M from the last full year, so a mid point if 53.6M. Take out the 5% inflator and the real midpoint is $51.1M. To hit $70M with the inflator the real midpoint would have to rise to $59.1M before the inflator.

We get: growth = 100*(59.1/51.1-1)=15.7%.

In the end so long as they do not go over this year and have to take a penalty they should be ok. The cap might go up a fair bit if the dollar stabilizes and if the new Canadian TV deal is factored in for the 2014-2015 season. Typically it would only impact the 2015-2016 cap and onwards, but if it is a big increase they can factor it in early.

It is also possible that things like the extra outdoor games and a significant increase in sponsorship might make a bigger impact than I expect, but I still think $70M is extremely optimistic.

Originally Posted by Scoobs View Post
I wouldn't really worry about the cap. We won't feel the crunch immediately, and it's hard to say who will be on this team 2 years from now and what the reality of the numbers will be.

Worrying now is a little bit premature.
I actually think that the cap is more of an immediate problem than it is a long term issue. One nice thing about long term contracts for the core is it allows the growth in the cap to work for you. If there is a loss of flexibility it could be 2014-2015 that is the worst year in that respect. It might be tough to take on an unexpected big contract if Schultz and Nuge have big years. Of course there is always the option of bridge deasl for one or the other but that carries its own risk.

Nothing to panic about though.

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