Thread: Proposal: Canes-NYR-Avs
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07-29-2013, 04:29 PM
  #101
Big Daddy Cane
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterUnspoken View Post
Tlusty is at 13.8% now and he isn't really going to deviate from that very much considering he averages about 70 shots a year.

If you take his 79 GP season he had 136 shots and shot 12.5%. If you assume he's going to keep that up.... he'll average 17 goals a year (which is borderline 2/3 liner depending on team). If you take his career shot totals - he averages 9 goals a season.

It's more likely he's a 12-13 goals a year player.

If he somehow manages to defy all realistic expectations then good for him and good for Canes fans. Some of us are just a little bit skeptical of his recent surge in ability.

It's fair to question him just like its fair for you to question Marc's ability to come back from an eye injury.

Bottom line Rangers fans don't want a 'fluke' player and the Canes don't want to trade him for a guy with 'one good eye'. I think we all can agree with that. If Marc decides he wants to play with his brothers then so be it - doesn't really bother me at all.
Nope. This analysis completely ignores the effect that Top 6 minutes, more offensive zone starts and PP time has had on Tlusty’s shot totals. There’s going to be a noticeable difference in shots for in a 3rd line shutdown role next to Brandon Sutter w/o PP time and Top 6 minutes next to Eric Staal with PP time. I can’t pinpoint the exact date he was permanently promoted to that role, but over the past 82 games, Tlusty has registered 177 shots (and 31 goals). Using his career shooting percentage, that amounts to ~24 goals over a 177 shot, 82 game season. Since being given an opportunity in the Top 6, Jiri has generally produced like a Top 6 forward.

2011-2012 Game Log --> http://www.hockey-reference.com/play.../gamelog/2012/
2012-2013 Game Log --> http://www.hockey-reference.com/play.../gamelog/2013/


Last edited by Big Daddy Cane: 07-29-2013 at 04:35 PM.
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