Thread: Salary Cap: The Oilers and the cap
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07-30-2013, 08:13 PM
taunting canadian
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The save percentage is a quirky stat. Hard to replicate and based on some minor differences. An improved defence could lead to his facing fewer shots. Say an improved defence clears the odd puck that last year's team couldn't. If they clear one extra puck a week over the season that prevent shots, Dubnyk's save percentage drops one point to .919 and from 12th overall to 14th.
That only applies if all of those rebound shots would have been saves in the previous season, or at least if Dubnyk's SV% on those 2nd shots is higher than his overall .920. If his SV% on those 2nd shots that are now prevented was lower than .920, his SV% would actually end up going up slightly, all else being equal. And since we're talking about rebound opportunities that are basically in prime scoring position, chances are those are shots that would naturally have a higher shooting % than an average shot.

Also, as a completely unrelated side note, we should put to bed the refrain that the number of shots against isn't an accurate reflection of the team's defensive performance because of potential quality of shot differences. There are teams out there that are adept at keeping teams to the outside and forcing lots of low quality shots - but the 12/13 Oilers were not one of those teams. The Oilers gave up plenty of shots and plenty of high quality scoring chances.

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