Thread: Prospect Info: Blues Prospect Rankings #9
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08-01-2013, 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Celtic Note View Post
Toivonen and Bacashihua were busts when we got them.

Schwartz is the only goalie as close to a sure thing the Blues have drafted since 2000.

From a quick glance at our draft history it is apparent our biggest failures have been drafting defensemen out of the top three rounds. Maybe we should stay away from them?

As far having a hard time projecting Binnington comment, can't we say the exact same thing about the rest of the prospects on the list?
Of course.

Personally, I don't feel comfortable projecting goalies until I've seen them play a decent number of games against a (relatively) high level of competition. I wasn't a goalie myself, I've never coached the position, and I'm far from an expert on goaltending technique. My opinion for goaltenders at levels lower than the AHL almost 100% reliant on scouting reports, and I don't find the scouting reports for goalies at that level to be incredibly consistent or meaningful.

I feel much more comfortable projecting a defenseman or forward based upon limited viewings against inferior competition, and I think that scouting reports are often more accurate/meaningful for these positions as well.

A defenseman "who needs to work on his skating," for example, can be further sub-grouped into those who have poor technique that is holding them back, those who lack top end speed, those who lack initial explosiveness (in acceleration or when changing direction), etc. Often I can discern those differences myself with even limited viewings, and if I don't have any viewings to do it then there are others that I trust out there in the mainstream media who are capable of doing it as well. Some of those things are more concerning than others, and I feel like I have a general idea of how correctable those major issues are and what sort of timeframe we're looking at.

When I see that a goalie "needs to work on his rebound control," for example, it holds much less meaning for me. Bad rebounds happen to even the best goalies, and they can often be the secondary result of defensive breakdowns from the team in front of them. Is it a chronic problem? How much of the problem is form related? Positioning/angle related? Related to things beyond their control? It would probably take a couple dozen viewings at that level for me to start forming an opinion of my own that I felt was worth anything, and even then I still wouldn't have any real idea correctable the issue is, and what the projected development timeline would be.

The bottom line is that I simply don't trust my own take on lower-level goalies that much, nor the available scouting reports, and I don't put much stock in the objective data for goalies at those levels either. For those reasons, they are always going to drop toward the bottom of any given talent tier for me.

Just my personal philosophy.

Last edited by EastonBlues22: 08-01-2013 at 07:12 PM.
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