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08-07-2013, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Trainspotter View Post
The problem is that if the Leafs aren't in the playoffs confirmation bias will be rampant while the predictive validity of Fenwick remains weak. In fact, at least an equal proportion of any team's success or lack thereof will be accounted for by some other factor or combination of factors and The Whims of the Man in the Moon...ahem..."random variance" or whatever Bafflegab translation for "we don't have a clue how that happens" is fashionable at that point. But they'll still say, "we told you so".
For clarity, the random variation component of team results is literally that - random variation. It's not a label for the proportion of variation that can't be explained.

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