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08-16-2013, 12:29 PM
I taught Yoda
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Some Army fort
Originally Posted by
This is why he has an "average" of 26 pts in 44 games.
around 60%. That would be the "expected return" ... based on historical stats.
The dispersion around this "expected return" would be your hypothesis.
(I know ... we mix up pts and goals here ... the principle remains)
My point is saying that the expected dispersion is reasonably skewed upwards due to the slump.
(remember it is his firs NHL year, and he played many more games than his mates ... having played in Switzerland ... the slump was mainly due to him being out of gaz, he was "put to rest (the slump)" and was ready for the playoffs where he ended best scorer of the Red Wings ... before Zetterberg and Datsyuk)
On top of that, he had some game winning SO goals that do not count in these stats.
Whatever ... we discuss on a hockey board for our pleasure ... Poile and the others are pros and have their specialised understandings on that.
Brunner is in a similar situation that Smith was at the end of his first season. Both entered the league extremely hot with a 5-6 week long tear that accounted for most of their points. Then they cooled down dramatically. "Average" would indicate performance over time ... not what he did in one lockout shortened season.
Half of a season on North American ice is not a lot to base a long term contract on especially with how inconsistent that season was. There just isn't enough North American history with Brunner to justify a long term, high dollar contract.
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