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08-21-2013, 11:43 PM
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First Lines

Savard and Pederson are two of the best centers in this; Savard voted #1 and Pederson #4. Savard holds the offensive advantage, but doesn't bring much else to the table. He got better towards the end of his career in Boston, but he's an average defensive player at best. Pederson brings a valuable two-way game to the table with three top 15 finishes in Selke voting, in addition to strong scoring.

Savard: 92, 84, 80, 74, 68, 60, 56, 48, 42(6 year total 458)
Pederson: 86, 84, 70, 63, 54, 54(6 year total 411)

Savard has him in 6 years and longevity on top of that. The difference in 6 years is 11.4%. In terms of team leading:

Savard: 4, 4, 2, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1(6 year avg. 1.833)
Pederson: 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3(6 year avg. 2.167)

Advantage to Savard there as well. Pederson makes up a little ground in playoff scoring with a PPG increase of .60, but Savard was pretty good in the limited time he was in the playoffs, basically maintaining the same PPG.

Shibicky and Wiseman are the scoring wingers on this line, so I'll compare them despite the fact that they're opposite wings.

Shibicky: 80, 75, 74, 63, 55, 49(6 year total 346)
Wiseman: 90, 75, 73, 73, 70, 63, 60, 51(6 year total 444)

Pretty big advantage there to Wiseman, and he's got two good years in addition to that. The difference in 6 years is 28.3%. Scoring among teammates is tough on these guys because of the small number of teams, but here they are:

Shibicky: 6, 4, 5, 4, 7, 4
Wiseman: 6, 4, 3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4

Neither really brings much in terms of intangibles so Wiseman's offensive advantage makes him the superior winger.

That brings us to glue guys Lever and Colville:

Colville: 70, 64, 64, 56, 49, 42(6 year total 345)
Lever: 57, 55, 54, 54, 47, 45, 45, 43(6 year total 312)

I'm not sure how much of a boost Colville deserves because he was pre-expansion considering the fact that he was a clear third wheel of his line with Shibicky and Neil Colville. Seventies usually recommends 15%, I think something more 7-10% is suitable. Colville was known to have some glue-guy abilities with that quote about board-work and backchecking. Lever brings much of the same, with more substantiated defense.

6 year offense of both lines(giving 15% boost to all pre-expansion guys):

Lever: 312
Pederson: 411
Wiseman: 511

Total: 1,234

Shibicky: 398
Savard: 458
Colville: 397

Total: 1,253

Basically, they're very close offensively. I thought a 15% boost would be too generous to Colville, but it turns out he was nearly an offensive equal to Shibicky. Savard has longevity Pederson doesn't, and Lever/Wiseman have longevity that Colville/Shibicky don't. Colville/Shibicky had their productive years shortened by the war, so it's tough to punish them for not having longevity when it looked like they had productive years left. With a slight advantage to St. Louis offensively, let's look at intangibles. I think Philadelphia holds a pretty sizable advantage in terms of defensive ability. Lever and Pederson were both noted two-way players, and have a combined four top 15s in Selke voting between them, unheard of for a first line that doesn't include Anze Kopitar. Philadelphia's first line is arguably the best defensively in the draft, along with Cornwall. Neither line is particularly tough. I think a pretty sizable difference in defensive ability, and longevity advantages for Wiseman/Lever is enough to overcome the slight offensive disadvantage over 6 years to give Philadelphia a slight advantage.

Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Don't pay any attention to me; it's more that I like the Jarrett - Letang pairing than anything, but apparently that sentiment isn't shared as much by the other GMs
I had Jarrett pretty high in AS voting, so I was surprised he didn't make any of the teams. I'm just not a big fan of Letang on a first pairing. He can be a useful MLD defenseman if he's sheltered, but I think first pairing would be too much for him.

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