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08-22-2013, 01:57 PM
Rob Scuderi
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
6 year offense of both lines(giving 15% boost to all pre-expansion guys):

Lever: 312
Pederson: 411
Wiseman: 511

Total: 1,234

Shibicky: 398
Savard: 458
Colville: 397

Total: 1,253

Basically, they're very close offensively. I thought a 15% boost would be too generous to Colville, but it turns out he was nearly an offensive equal to Shibicky. Savard has longevity Pederson doesn't, and Lever/Wiseman have longevity that Colville/Shibicky don't. Colville/Shibicky had their productive years shortened by the war, so it's tough to punish them for not having longevity when it looked like they had productive years left. With a slight advantage to St. Louis offensively, let's look at intangibles. I think Philadelphia holds a pretty sizable advantage in terms of defensive ability. Lever and Pederson were both noted two-way players, and have a combined four top 15s in Selke voting between them, unheard of for a first line that doesn't include Anze Kopitar. Philadelphia's first line is arguably the best defensively in the draft, along with Cornwall. Neither line is particularly tough. I think a pretty sizable difference in defensive ability, and longevity advantages for Wiseman/Lever is enough to overcome the slight offensive disadvantage over 6 years to give Philadelphia a slight advantage.
Definitely a fair analysis, but I just don't think Pederson and Lever are that special defensively to push Philly's line ahead. There's a reason that a handful of 10ish Selke finishes are one of the best top lines defensively here. Offense is the focus of top lines and save Kopitar, there's no real defensive stalwarts on a top line in the whole draft.

Pederson's 11th place finish was 2 first place votes, I don't know how many votes he got when he finished 10th. Same thing with Lever's 6 Selke voting points but no votes listed. I'm not sure it's so unbelievable that Colville would have received a pair of Selke votes in one of his seasons considering his main role on a high skilled scoring line was backchecking.

I was a bit hesitant about Colville's offense for a top line, but with the chemistry and skillset he seemed a good fit. Yet he's better offensively than Lever while losing 3 prime years to the war and then losing his brother as a linemate after the war.

We're talking about top lines here and Lever's mediocre scoring sticks out to me. I like Lever, but I think he's a little over his head offensively as I worried Colville would be.

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