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08-23-2013, 01:57 AM
  #16
Sturminator
I voted for Kodos
 
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Join Date: Feb 2002
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Allright, some more data for us to evaluate, all of which is coming from this thread, which now lives in the By the Numbers section. The VsX system is a collaborative effort among ATDers that grew from iterative tweaks to BM67's original work with Vs#2 scorer analysis. Here is a description of the methodology:

Quote:
1. First preference is to use the #2 scorer

2. If #3 points/#2 points < .90, I use the #3 scorer, unless...

3. There is a gap of greater than 10% anywhere else in the top-5 - following the same method as above: [small #]/[large #] < .90.

At that point, I take the first gap, and identify the upper outlier group (top 3 or 4 or 5 above which the gap occurs), and then go down into the scoring table until I reach a number of players which equals: [size of outlier group] * 2. The benchmark is set as an average of the scoring of these players.

4. If any player in the top-5 is more than 7% below the player above him and more than 7% above the player below him, his score is taken as the benchmark. [this is the Bathgate Rule]

Examples of the methodology:

1. 2003-04:

Quote:
The top of the scoring table is:

1. St. Louis - 94
2. Sakic - 87
2. Kovalchuk - 87
4. Naslund - 84
5. Hossa - 82
6. Elias - 81

Joe Sakic and Ilya Kovalchuk are tied in second place on the scorer's list with 87 points. There are no gaps of greater than 10% in the rest of the top-5, so Sakic/Kovalchuk, as co-#2 scorers, are used as the benchmark.
2. 2005-06:

Quote:
The top of the scoring table is:

1.Thornton - 125
2. Jagr - 123
3. Ovechkin - 106
4. Heatley - 103
4. Alfredsson - 103
6. Crosby 102

There is a 14% gap between Jagr's 123 and Ovechkin's 106 points, but no other large gaps in the top-5, so Ovechkin's 106 points as the #3 scorer is used as the benchmark.
3. 1979-80:

Quote:
The top of the scoring table is:

1. Dionne - 137
1. Gretzky - 137
3. Lafleur - 125
4. Perreault - 106
5. Rogers - 105
6. Trottier - 104

There is only a 9% gap between the #2 and #3 scorers here, but there is a 15% gap between the #3 and #4 scorers. The outlier group is the top three, so we average the scoring of the top 6 players to set our benchmark, which ends up being 119 points - a completely artificial number.
4. 1956-57:

Quote:
1. Howe - 89
2. Lindsay - 85
3. Beliveau - 84
4. Bathgate - 77
5. Litzenberger - 64
...average as benchmark: 77

Here, Andy Bathgate is more than 7% behind Beliveau above him, and more than 7% ahead of Litzenberger below him. Bathgate's score is taken as the benchmark in this season.
All of that is just to establish the benchmark for a single season, after which we divide everybody's points for the season by that number to come up with "scores" for each player which reflect their performance versus the benchmark.

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