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08-24-2013, 12:46 PM
Vankiller Whale
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You took just long enough to make me think that this discussion was finally over. Ah well.

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
There's no direct quote there.

On the other point about what opinion to put stock in: You are still not seeing the inherent contradiction in what you are becoming beholden to. As a fan, you have put yourself ahead of both scouting reports and team scouts by deciding when to follow opinion and when not to. Yet, you have chosen to dismiss the fan opinion here that does exactly this. Which means, they should be valued like your own. Your own bias is present when you supercede the opinion of the majority scouting reports, or even when you follow it. No different than any poster here. So how can the group be dismissed while you stay true to your opinion in the very same manner? Don't you see the contradiction?
I'm very confused as to the contradiction you are trying to identify. As a fan, I have an opinion based on my own viewings, other scouts/posters views, etc. Just because I'm not always going to follow independent scouts opinions religiously doesn't mean that I value all fans' opinions more than scouting services.

Even if that were the case, it still wouldn't be a contradiction, because the majority of fans in general(i.e. not just Canucks fans) would prefer Nichushkin as well.

I'm not trying to convince you of something because the majority of people prefer Nichushkin, I'm just trying to say that you aren't convincing me just because the majority of Canucks fans say otherwise.

Totally disagree with your revisionist take on the Kessel deal. Unsigned RFA with two top 10 picks + high second was a hefty price. Don't really care what you have to say about it. Think about what unsigned RFAs garner and you'll have your answer. Well, if logic prevails that is.
What's revisionist is making it seem like the picks were guaranteed top-10 picks at the time of the trade. There was a lot of risk for both sides, but it certainly wasn't overpayment.

Fans on the poll board (if you put stock into it), showed that it's not “close” at all between Toews/Backstrom. So you're still wrong.
How does it show it's not close? In theory every single person could have Toews over Backstrom by a hair, and you'd get the same result. Anyways, I don't have to agree with the poll results. I wasn't speaking for everyone when I said I valued Backstrom similarly to Toews.

But if the odds of drafting better forwards remain higher than that of defensemen, over the top end of the draft, despite what type of forward it is, then it's mistake to think all types can be successful at the same rate. Which is what the article attempts to outline. It is _not_ just as likely a high end Dman be drafted high up in the draft as it is a forward. So when you made the statement to go for a dman in the same position, this was brought up in contention to that belief.

The article takes into account the Dmen you listed.
Well you keep changing the bar. Do teams go for the lower bust factor? Or the higher upside? Because before you were claiming that teams should take the safer player with less high end upside.

I never said defensemen are as likely to be high end players as forwards are statistically. All I said was that they were safer, in terms of making the NHL in some capacity.

So why did your philosophy of taking the "safe" player with a lesser likelihood of becoming a high end player change when changing the discussion to forward vs defenseman instead of safer lower-upside forward vs riskier high-upside forward?

So a #1C is only one that puts up 100+ points? Your statement is absurd, and should enlighten everyone as to your mindset on the matter.
I did not once say or imply that.

And you're also wrong about the second statement because teams have done exactly that at the draft. Why? Because drafting is as much about probabilities as it is upside.
Teams have also done the exact opposite at the draft. Not sure what you're trying to prove. If anything that shows that there is no one type of player that is always better to draft.

But who outnumbers you when you take your opinion over independent scouts? When your opinion doesn't coincide with those of other scouts, why do you take your own opinion as being something greater? You still fail to realize that the majority of Canucks posters here take into account those same independent rankings, and while you stay beholden to them, these other fans have made their own, opposite assessments. Just like team scouts have this past draft.
Discussed above.

Yes, not favouring prospect talent much at all does invalidate your opinion somewhat. Your focus on them is not as deep, not as learned, because prospects in general are not a concern for you. Meanwhile, some posters on here that have tracked these prospects more intently have a differing opinion. That speaks volumes.
I really hope you don't expect me to answer this. It would be akin to me saying that since you were so dead set on having Schneider as the goalie of the future, you couldn't bear to see him traded for a pick where we didn't draft the best player.

It's a cheap shot which has no presence being in what I had thought was a discussion based on the merits of players, as opposed to trying to discredit one another as individuals.

So not an elite playmaker. Those types need both.
Based on what, exactly?

9 lbs is not 20 lbs.

215lbs is not average, unless Kassian is below average at 214lbs.
Why are you focusing entirely on weight? Horvat is currently 5 pounds heavier than and half an inch shorter than the average NHLer. Even if he puts on another 5-10 pounds, it's still not enough to call him more than average. Kassian is also two inches taller than the average NHLer as well as being heavier, so he is definitely above average. I don't see why you are ignoring the height difference. The difference between Kassian and Horvat in height is the same as the difference between Horvat and Domi, Just to give you some context. If someone were 6'2, 190 pounds I'd consider them average sized as well.

Kane is an exceptional talent unlike the ones mentioned. If he is used as a marker for upside, then it's just as valid to use Kopitar for Horvat's. After all, if development is assumed, assume it for all. Or don't assume it for any.
Why should I assume that Horvat will develop into a player who is extremely skilled when Horvat plays a more gritty game similar to Backes? Horvat lacks the skill to be a true top-line offensive player. If he were really a Kopitar level prospect I would jump for joy if we had taken him over Nichushkin.

Who's talking about NHL ready? You said “earned”, end of story.
What I was implying was that spending time in the minors "earning" it is irrelevant. All that matters is that a prospect is ready to play in the NHL, which Nichushkin is.

Coppernblue isn't definitive, but it bears mentioning how they rank forward prospects against one another. By their system, they favour the 1way forward putting up big numbers in their draft year, over 2way forwards playing near a PPG pace. It is interesting though that even amongst his 1way producing peers that Nich is seen as very suspect. In contrast, Horvat, like the other 2way forward comparables, isn't favoured. So disfavoured amonst disfavoured for Horvat; disfavoured amongst favoured for Nich.
I put very little stock in Coppernblue even at the best of times, but especially when their projections ignore the most important development year for draftees, looking only at numbers in a league that very few people are experts on, that stock drops to zero.

Look at where guys like Drouin and Nurse were rated before this year, as mid-late 1st round picks. Or Nick Ebert, who was heralded as a top draft pick before falling off a cliff and getting selected last overall in 2012.

Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
Semin is a good defensive player who takes a lot of stick penalties. I don't know where this myth that he's a one-way player comes from.
His nationality, most likely. It's too bad we didn't take a flyer on him in UFA when he was reportedly looking for 10m over 2 years.

Interestingly enough, HF's write up on Nichushkin compares his defensive game to Semin's.

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