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08-29-2013, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by JLewyB View Post
Alright so you are making point 2 in the counterargument. Fully agree that Vanek will probably get more at the trade deadline then if we were to trade more because more suitors will come in to play. The question is: does the extra value we gain at the deadline exceed the value we lose from winning and subsequently losing draft position? Again, I think you can make a case for Vanek but as a goalie will Miller's value really increase? The issue with those extra suitors at the deadline is that they are in the Cup hunt and typically have a pretty stable goalie situation, if anything
his value curve will dip.
Lets say they opt to trade them in January....around the midpoint of the season.

There are more than enough games left to lose draft position. Usually around that point in the season the playoff bubble is maybe 10 pts out of last place.

Did you see what happened with Nashville this past season---right after the deadline they were I think tied or a pt out of 8th place...then they lost out and got to pick 4.

Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
Okay, I'm going to address this point, because, believe it or not, how talent acquisition and financial structuring work in Major League Baseball is not remotely similar to how those things work in the NHL.

What the Houston Astros are doing under current management (their current GM has only been the GM since December of 2011, shortly after the team's new owner bought them) is they are trading higher salaried players, none of whom are exactly superstars, to acquire younger, cost-controlled players.

Talking about the MLB draft like its in any way relevant to the NHL draft is absoluely asinine, though. In the MLB draft, players have a lot more leverage since a lot of them can opt not to sign, and then they go on to college and re-enter the draft. Also, under the current MLB CBA, a team's draft budget is closely tied to a team's draft position. So, in the Astros' case, the appeal of having the top pick is less having the top pick itself and more about having more money to spend on the draft. That's why in 2012, the Astros used the first overall pick on Carlos Correa, because he left them more money to use *elsewhere* in the draft to sign other players to deals at higher than their recommended slot value. Better prospects like Byron Buxton and Mark Appel (who the Astros ended up drafting first overall in 2013) were skipped over for that reason.

Furthermore, baseball does not have a worldwide draft (only players from the US, including Puerto Rico, and Canada are eligible). In fact, in baseball, there is another unrelated budget put into place under the current CBA related to international free agents, which is also tied to a team's record.

It must also be remembered that in Major League Baseball there is no salary cap, or salary floor, so there is more reason to be cheap if you know your team is going to be awful so that you can save money to make a big financial splash when your team is building up to be good again (obviously, similar strategies are available to NHL teams, but not to the same extreme due to the salary cap and salary floor. And also, those strategies still aren't about "tanking" for the top pick)

In short, Major League Baseball has a fundamentally different economic landscape than the NHL does, along with avenues of talent acquisition which fundamentally speaking do not work the same, or even that similar to, how they work in the NHL.
MLB is comparable to the NHL in the uncertainty with players at 18. IMO---the player coulf finish their play in the OHL after drafting and not sign with the drafting team after two years.

In MLB it usually takes 5 yrs before a draft pick even sniffes playing at the pro level. The ones that make the step right away within a yr of the draft are the college players.

baseball like hockey is so hit and miss.

I though baseball did have a salary floor otherwise the teams lose out on the revenue sharing.

Teams do and dont draft players based on their signability. If player X has a notorious agent a team will likely avoid drafting him because signing him would be a PITA.

In football , baseball, and basketball all players could refuse to sign and sit out a year and re-enter the draft.

As for the MLB draft---IIRC---if a cuban player defects in the USA they arent a free agent. There are rules based on their age. If they defect to a place like costa rica then they do become a free agent and can sign anywhere they want.

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