Introducing a new stat: Location Adjusted Expected Goals Percentage
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08-30-2013, 11:33 PM
Join Date: May 2012
Originally Posted by
I find this really interesting, great work!
One question though; it seems like you have based the metric on shots, wouldn't it have been better to base it on Corsi/Fenwick instead?
1. You'd get a larger sample size for each player.
2. Just because a shot from an area is more likely to go in it doesn't mean that a shot attempt is more likely to do the same. There might be a higher frequency of blocks, or harder to hit the net from that area.
Point #2 is likely pretty (or completely) insignificant. But there is a reason Corsi and Fenwick are preferred over shots, shouldn't you have used one of/both of them instead?
Missed/Blocked shots don't have their locations recorded.
Also, to everyone asking for the percentages+intervals, I don't have the data right now as I'm out of town but I'll update the article to include the numbers when I get home.
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