Do advanced stats really tell the story?
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08-31-2013, 02:49 AM
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Canberra, Australia
Originally Posted by
It should also be stated that while some theories could possibly be true in the absence of evidence it conversely allows for the possibility that that these same theories are completely false. When there are alternative explanations that are more plausible and there is measureable evidence supporting them the premise with no support/evidence becomes less plausible.
Momentum in a metaphysical sense is an abstract idea which by nature is virtually impossible to prove or disprove as it does not have a concrete definition. It is simply a term commonly used to describe a phenomenon that all of the data points to being the product of confidence or the lack thereof.
You know what bugs me? Hockey commentators often point out the importance of getting the first goal. You'll hear something like "When Team X has scoresd the first goal, they win 76% of their games". What the talking heads try to imply by that statistic, is that by scoring the first goal the team has more confidence, is more laid back and happy, and they end up playing a better game and winning.
That is most likely the wrong interpretation. More likely, when you score the 1st goal at the 15 minute mark, you only need to tie the game in the remaining 45 minutes to win the game. Whereas if you allow the first goal, you need to win by 2 goals in the remaining 45 minutes to win the game. The latter is much harder, independent of "momentum". The issue is simply one of conditional probability.
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