Around the NHL: OMG HOCKEY Edition
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09-03-2013, 08:09 PM
Join Date: Oct 2010
Originally Posted by
That statistical treatment didn't actually address shot quality in any meaningful way....
It proved that switching teams didn't affect a goalie's Sv%. Since goalies have no control over shot quality, the implication is that the team doesn't really either.
That is not the only study, but the first one I came across.
Here is a better example.
The average change in a goalie's save percentage from year to year when he stays with the same team is just 0.0005 larger than simple random chance would predict, and when a goalie changes teams the sv% difference is just 0.0011 larger than random chance. The best shot-quality-influencing system of this era (Jacques Lemaire's) reduced Fenwick shooting percentages by about 0.0015. The result is that any team effect on a goalie's save percentage doesn't add up to more than a goal or two per season.
The point is not: "All teams face the same shots, so ignore shot quality completely."
The point is: "Differences in shot locations are small and require a very large data set to overcome noise, so you won't be wrong by much if you ignore them."
Together, Fenwick/Corsi and Luck account for around 3/4 of team winning percentage. What's the remainder? Goaltending talent - which Tom Awad estimates at about 5% - and special teams, along with a very small sliver that's due to shooting talent and the oft-mentioned "shot quality."
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