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09-07-2013, 05:14 PM
  #1
bernmeister
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5NYRs w/Buf, Car, Nash, Wini + Edm

Not one super trade to be attacked as outlandish, but 4 reasonable deals, plus last one less certain b/c would have Oilers trade Yakupov. However all 5 are financially sound, as explained.

1. RW Ryan Callahan (4.275m) + G Martin Biron (1.3m) + W Darroll Powe (1,066,667) + W Taylor Pyatt (1.55m) + rights to W Adam Tambellini (unsigned first selection this year, $ would = ELC) Total = $8,191.667
To Buf for
G Ryan Miller (6.250m) + D Rasmus Ristolainen (1.775m) Total $7,825,000
Net differential on cap $376,667 added by Rangers
5 for 2 including 2 cap dumps, so its really more like 3+ for 2

Discussion:
NY lose their heart and soul, but gain a terrific top ten asset for down the road, even with surrendering their own top pick from this year. Lose Biron but when Miller moved may get backup vet in return based on who has become available; alternatively can do Talbot while waiting for acceptable vet option to emerge (which is not a given IMO as to if necessary), Talbotís glove IMO is NHL fast, it is the rest of his game that has to catch up. Could move prospect Stacjer with small asset for a backup, esp. if that team looking for a cap dump. Shed deadwood in Powe and Pyatt, so when Miller moved, = nice cap recovery.

Buf gets a favorite hometown hero (Rochester, close enuf), and was having trouble getting its price for Miller on short notice of sudden availability [legit interest but not able to do the high cap so quickly]. Add a nice prospect in Tambellini, who could turn into Callahan lite as Cally starts to latter/end phase of career; surplus of cap differential would go towards 1st contract. Is sacrificing a nice D prospect, but one not available this year anyway, and Sabres strong at the moment on backline. Take on surplus for lower 6 will have to move, possibly to team like Oilers, at certain discount which = partial loss, but was only 1 yr on end of their packages.


2. G Ryan Miller (6.250m) + D Justin Falk (.975m [1 yr then RFA) D Danny Syvret (.587m (1 yr) + F Michael St. Croix (ELC, .870m for three years) Total = $8,682,000
to Carolina for
D Justin Faulk (.9m [1 yr then RFA, end of ELC] + F Jeff Skinner, (5.725m [x6 has NTC but does not kick in until 2017-18 season]) Total = $6,625,000
Net differential on cap $2,057,667 added by Hurricanes
however, most of that is in Ryan Millerís salary this year only, well worth the price for the first 2 months of the season, and would be off the books less what comes back the other way when Miller is traded. Also, Faulk would be due for a big raise going forward not reflected here.
4 for 2

Discussion:
Rangers land Faulk as cheaper upgrade to Girardi, then use Skinner to get Jones as well.

Canes, on paper big (6'4") Brett Bellemore, w/ 2 AHL seasons + cup of coffee w/Canes last year, will compete at RD as will 2011 12th overall Ryan Murphy easing loss of Faulk. Falk + Syvret = nice lower/depth LD add. MSC has legit track record as scorer. Loss of Skinner hurts, but that is a big contract, [were considering moving one of those anyway] so you get some flexibility after this year. The real package is Ryan Miller, who will more than hold the fort and save the early season for the Canes as Cam Ward [proj. out at least 8 weeks] heals, and the offers mature. Unless Miller fully reverts to Vezina form, and likes it down South and signs extension [believed he will seek points West after next year], and with smaller offers for Ward, it is Miller who will be sold to the highest bidder, perhaps at the last minute, but that is likely to be a pretty penny for clubs seeking a top G for playoff push and first crack at signing him beyond this season.


3. D Girardi (3.325m [1yr]) + F Skinner + (5.725m [x6 has NTC but not until 2017-18 season]) + LW Brandon Mashinter (.605m [1 yr]) + 2014 NYR 1st Total = $9,655,000
to Nashville for
D Seth Jones (3.225m [3yr ELC]) + C Colin Wilson (2m) [2yrs] + C Matt Cullen (3.5m [for 2 years, also a 35+ contract which counts vs cap in nearly all cases]) + 2014 Nashville 1st
Total = $8,725,000
Net differential on cap $880,000 added by Predators
however, Preds unload a 35+ contract that pays this year and next
4 for 4 (3 for 3 players + 1 for 1 picks)

Discussion
Rangers obviously gamble Jones is top of the draft quality. Wilson is a C who looks promising, but missed many games last season with bad shoulder. Cullen must be slowing down though still seems to have enough speed and thus is not deadwood, just pricy vs cheaper production. He is, however, a fixture on the roster (cap) for 2 years unless we pay to have him taken off our hands or get equal value at other position w/better contract. NY hopes to advance slots, from perhaps end of selection to middle of pack, at the draft with the flip of picks.

Predators get immediate use of Girardi [would have been waiting until Jones makes the club] w/inside track at extension or late option at deadline to move for premium to likely need team; get desperately needed proven scoring wrapped up long term in Skinner; huge cap benefit from subtraction of Cullen, surely, and project immediate short term benefit if Wilson would need time to heal, assuming he returns to form. Mashinter is outside shot to make 4th line as grinder/goon; is that worth 600k? Regardless, still huge cap relief from other parts of package. Obviously, swap of 1sts not good but worth this package.


4. C Matt Cullen (3.5m 2 years]) Rangers eat max half contract for first year only + W Thomas Spelling [W shoots l] (unsigned)+ Total = $1,750,000m
to Jets for
D Zach Redmond (.715m 1 yr, RFA) + D Paul Postma (.712m 2yrs, RFA)
[1.427 + 1.75 half hit on Cullen] Total = $3,177,000
Net differential on cap $1,427,000 added by Rangers
Jets obtain a 35+ contract but that is minimized for this year
2 for 2

Discussion
Rangers obviously pay Jets to take Cullen, where he is a depth fit. Spelling was a later pick, but, while early, he shows promise. Jets D enough it can move both Redmond and Postma, a project barely in their plans.

Jets prob donít do this with Cullen at full pop, but max of half on next year is fine. Cap goes up after, and have options as to Cullen in last year with Winnipeg. Speed, vet presence, are immediately useful now that not overpriced. Spelling an interesting project; maybe, best case scenario, a Hagelin lite with less speed, but better shot. At this point Postma not even on the bubble, and Redmond is a productive D, but Jets can work around.


5 D MDZ (2.255m this yr, then RFA) + LW Poillot (1.3m this yr then UFA) + C Wilson+ RW Derek Dorsett (1.633,333 x 2yrs then UFA) + Nashville 2014 1st
Total = $7,188,333.
to Oilers for
LW Yakupov (3.775m x 2, then RFA) + D Potter (.775m this yr, then UFA) + LW Ryan Jones, (1.5m then UFA) in cap dump ; Yak is bonus eligible.
Total = $6,050,000*
*$6.050m actual + bonuses on Yak
Net differential on cap $1,133,333 actual added by Oilers
not counting bonuses for Yakupov
5 for 3 (4 players + 1 pick for 3 players)

Rangers obviously pay high but get a top 1LW. Balance are cap dump.
Donít expect Edmonton to be willing to give to get, but consider; yeah, itís a lot coming back, a recent first overall (Yakupov), but this is 1) first rounder Del Zotto whom Howson covets and projects as top first pair with J. Schultz; 2) an entire line addressing badly needed bottom 6 depth, of whom Wilson, upon recovering from bad shoulder, could be top 6, not bottom six material, and 3) a first next year from Nashville (4th overall this year, could still be top 10 this year, maybe). Thatís a lot for 1 guy, considering balance is throw in, for cap. Also on top of base, Yakupov is bonus eligible, so that 3.775m could tack on more easily enough if he is not injured. So moving Yak for multiple productive pieces deals with needed salary redistribution.


------------

Conclusion
deal 2 = Net differential on cap $2,057,667 added by Hurricanes
deal 3 = Net differential on cap $880,000 added by Predators
Subtotal credit to Rangers = $2,937,667
Less deal 1 $376,667 added by Rangers
Less deal 4 $1,427,000 added by Rangers
Subtotal debit to Rangers = $1,803,667

Net final total likely deals 1-4, $2,937,667 - $1,803,667 = $1,134,000 NYR saves

If add speculative deal w/Edm, then
$1,134,000 NYR saves + $1,133,333 = $2,267,333, not counting likely bonuses to Yakupov. So, in rough ballpark terms, arithmetic shows as to financials, the cap is close to wash and all deals are do-able.

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Roster: If only through deal 4:
Hagelin Stepan Nash
Kreider Brassard Fast/Kristo/MZA
Boyle Richards Asham
Poillot Moore Dorsett

Wilson, Miller, Lindberg Yogan

McD Faulk
Staal Stralman
MDZ Redmond
Moore McIlrath
Johnson

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Roster: If Edmonton does deal 5 also:
Yakupov Stepan Nash
Kreider Brassard Fast/Kristo/MZA
Hagelin Richards Yogan
Boyle More Asham/Miller

RyanJones Lindberg
Give Yogan a shot at RW to retain value of an asset w/potential by developing, rather than losing him; next year Miller full time, Lindberg replaces Richards

McD Faulk
Staal Stralman
Moore Redmond
Johnson McIlrath/Potter

and in either event
soon, Jones Then Skjei, Noreau, Ristolainen
with a better crop of D developing

constructive comments welcome

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