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09-09-2013, 12:18 AM
Join Date: Nov 2006
Originally Posted by
Being on a good team comes before both, wins are just a validation of ability. Game winning goals are largely predicated on opportunity, the goodness of the team provides opportunity. Therefore if you are not on a good team, a standard validated by wins, then you are lacking in opportunity. Game winning goals are certainly a requirement of victory but are also typically no more impactful than all the other goals for and against in a game. Gagner cannot manufacture opportunity on his own, as he cannot score game winning goals in spite of all other occurrences and variables in a game. Other players collectively have a far greater impact on the game than Gagner ever could have on his own.
A better method to gauge the effectiveness of a player based on his GWG would be to see what that percentage is compared to the team. Who's scoring the important goals? Who's scoring the GWG and the GTG's? And once we know those stats, are those players being played effectively (IE does Ryan Smyth deserve to be out there with 1 minute left in a losing 3-2 game)?
Being on a good team and winning means that the players are good. GWG have their place in evaluation. A GWG is by its nature much more important that the goal that puts you up 6-3.
Quantifying goals as they happen in various game states (Down 3-1, 3-2, tied 3-3, up 3-4, 3-5, 3-6) would affect the outcome, or chance of winning, depending how close you are to the median (Tie) and proportionate to how much time remains in the game. The whole facet of the game changes when a team ties up the game, and arguably more-so when a team takes the lead.
So in other words, the game becomes incredibly more volatile and chaotic the closer the score is to being tied. A player who can consistently score during these periods in a game is much more invaluable to a team than a player who doesn't. A team that lacks GWG and GTG scorers, is a team that frequently loses. I believe HF uses the word "Clutch" to arbitrarily describe these players. And while it's true that goals scored that lead up to a GTG/GWG are important, I could argue that the GWG scorers are the ones who are frequently scoring those, too.
I would be very interested to see league-wide who these players are. I believe players who've played for multiple teams would show similar stats.
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