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09-28-2013, 05:41 PM
  #399
Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Yes, because that's how hockey works.
Your odds of scoring are going to go up if you screen the goalie. Your odds of stopping it will go down if you don't clear the net. We don't do either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
And look, it actually works the other way sometimes, too. Remember the Habs beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2010? What happened then, the Habs' big forwards went to the net and their hulking D prevented the tiny Capitals and Penguins forwards from setting up screens?

No, of course not. What happened was they got lucky. They beat those teams the same way they got beat by Ottawa in 2013 and Philly in 2008.
I remember it clearly, and yeah we got lucky, every shot went in. However, Washington (if you remember) peppered us with shots. They (much like us) were a great skating team but they didn't screen either.

Halak was super wicked but we helped him out on the back end because we had a veteran squad who could do it and the Caps didn't park somebody in front of us either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Never mind the numbers. If people would get that in their heads, that a game played on a rapidly-degrading slippery surface with a bouncing rubber puck is subject to a ton of random variation that's out of both teams' control, hockey discourse could take a huge step forward. And maybe we'd get over this plague of insisting every loss is the result of some flaw despite all evidence to the contary, from lack of size to "not wanting it enough".

Hockey is a game where you can roundly outplay the other team and still lose the game. It's not because of some flaw that you have to stretch and make things up to argue. It's the nature of hockey. It's still better to outplay the other guys because it gives you better odds, but we need to stop pretending the better team wins every game because that's just not how the game works.
There are other things going on that simply aren't captured by the stats.

Maybe someday somebody will develop a goals allowed through screen stat vs goals allowed that are seen - maybe someday you'll understand this because you only seem to look at stats.

Like I said, hockey is a fluid game and the stats for it are still being developed. Just because the stats don't capture this aspect of the game it doesn't mean that it's not important.

Going to the net and safeguarding your own is important man. No spreadsheet in the world is going to change this. And NO we don't do this well.

Remember us arguing over Scott Gomez? Perfect example.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
The Habs' D is fine. Of course it could use an upgrade, like any club's, but it's hardly a terrible unit compared to the rest of the league.
Who's better Paul Coffey or Ray Bourque? Coffey is better in almost every way offensively but defensively Bourque kicks his butt. We've got a bunch of Paul Coffeys dude (only not near as good) and we're one dimensional.

The Habs D is far from fine. It has serious holes in it and we aren't going anywhere until we either resolve it or one of our guys steps up and plays in the dirty areas where we need them to be.


Last edited by Lafleurs Guy: 09-28-2013 at 05:47 PM.
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