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10-05-2013, 06:45 AM
Join Date: Mar 2010
Originally Posted by
Good thread but i do not think it is as black and white as you are making it.
Garbage goal makes a very realistic point. Linemates and type of system plays about a 90% of point. For instance would you expect a defensive minded team like the Blues their 3rd line center to outproduce a high octane offense 3rd line center?
What about linemates? Who played with who? Are they offensive players? Defensive? Is that 3rd line soley shutdown? For instance wouldnt you expect Couturier to produce more points with Voracek or Read than guys like Talbot or Powe or Asham?
How about moving up snd around the lineups? Injuries occur so players get shuffled. He might be on the 2nd line for awhile then get put down again.
Overall I dont have the hifhest expecations with just points but I dont agree how black and white you are making it.
They do make a big difference. That is why I included all of the teams in the NHL when I looked at it, and everyone who played a majority of their games a 3C, regardless of who they played with over the year, their role etc,
As can be seen the points (overall, not just even strength) vary from 39 at the top with Kelly and Bolland (high octane 3rd line centres on very deep teams with handy linemates) and at the bottom end I believe was about 17 (Pahlsson I believe, shut down 3C) I did the full list on a different PC.)
This accounts for different teams, linemates and systems, even with this accounted for no centre got more than 39 points when behind two others regularly. If Boston and Chicagos 3C's are only getting 39 points in their system, where the top line takes a lot of the hard mins off them I would not expect much more in any system.
As I also stated I excluded players who were up and down the lineup on a regular basis, as this is simply about if Couts stays in the same role as an exclusive 3rd line centre. Ofc if Couts role changes he gets more points, as I stated.
But the only players I excluded due to this (role change) were Dubinksy (36 points, 34 EV & SH), Cullen (39 points, 30 EV & SH) and Brodziak (44 points, 33 EV & SH) as these three guys Dubinsky played 35 games at 2LW, Cullen played about 20 games 1C, 30 games 2C and Brodziak played 20 games 1C and 20 games 2C.
So even if you include guys who played ~50% of the time at 3C and the rest up the lineup on 1st and 2nd only 1 hit 40, and he had massive PP contribution. Kelly remains the most in EV&SH points as well.
People may say, what about Fisher and Staal, and all the other 3C's people list as the 'best' in the NHL, and the fact is these guys played about 70 games at 2C or even at 1C in Fishers case, they are not 3C's.
Hanzal plays at 2C, Ryan O'Reilly played 1C, 2C and 10 games at 3C in 11-12 and 2C in 12-13, and now 1LW. Pavelski played 1RW a lot, or wing on 2nd line, about 10-20 games at 3C. Richards plays 2C as well all know.
Even the 09-10 Flyers, looking at recent 'stacked' forward groups where our supposed 3C (Giroux) got 47 points... he played over half the year on the 1st line, Betts and Powe played the most at 3C, with Pyorala as well. Van Riemsdyk was our top 3rd line scorer, with 37 factored (with 30 EV and SH.)
The black and white of it is that if he plays almost exclusively at 3C (~65 games +), with limited PP time he is very unlikely to hit 40 points. Why? Well no-one off any other team did in the last full season, and some of them played regularly on the PP and had far easier minutes.
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