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10-10-2013, 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Bringing a few things to the table to help show why save percentage translations are important.

Here's a list of all Vezina Trophy winners:

Over time, you can see the raw (unadjusted) save percentages fluctuate, as periods of offense dominated, and periods of defense dominated. Did all of the goaltenders in the 1980s suck? Maybe, but unlikely.

If you look at the adjusted metrics (Z-Score, Goal Differential, and Goals Above Replacement), you can still see some outliers - this is purportedly the list of each year's best goalie, after all - but the pattern evens out a bit.

It's also easier to pick out the truly remarkable performances. Note Dominik Hasek's 93% (raw) save percentage in 1993-94 - if you look at his z-score, you can see that his performance was 4.6 standard deviations above the league average. What "z score" measures is the likelihood that an average goaltender would put together a season like the one in question (since we've all seen average goaltenders put together stretches of great play). A z-score of 4.6 means that an average goaltender would reproduce Hasek's 1993-94 season about once every 475,000 years.

If you click through (on the above page), you can see the individual goaltenders' careers evolve (under REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS or POSTSEASON STATISTICS). It helps to compare (for instance) Patrick Roy's career with Dominik Hasek's career with Martin Brodeur's career (and you can see that each was remarkable in his own way).
That is insane! Is there a way to see how many hundreds of thousands of years it will take someone to be as bad as Fleury was in the playoffs against the Flyers 2 seasons ago?

I love the Penguins, but seeing this brand new metric showing how MAF sucks makes me chuckle. He is only 22nd! Haha

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