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10-12-2013, 12:11 AM
  #40
Laos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Good question - taking from here:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/fleury.html

(under POSTSEASON STATISTICS)

Fleury's 83.4% save percentage was 4.2 standard deviations lower than the average performance in the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs, as a league-average save percentage in the 2012 playoffs was a beefy 92.1%. A goaltender with a long-term 92.1% save percentage will put together a stretch like Fleury's about every 75,000 seasons.

However...

It's also important to consider the opponents that Fleury was facing (it's less important in the regular season, when teams essentially all play each other, and no one plays a single opponent an inordinate amount of times). Fleury faced only the Flyers, and if you look all the way to the right on Fleury's 2012 postseason line, you can see that his opponent-weighted expected save percentage was 0.900. Stated differently, the Flyers had a 10% shooting percentage last year (other than empty-net goals), which is quite high for this era.

So it's perhaps not fair to expect Fleury to average 92.1% in his playoffs year, but a more modest 90.0%. Against that benchmark, he was still about 2.7 standard deviations below average, which would put his performance at about once in 288 postseasons (still bad but not horrendous).
Just being curious on how you get your numbers like" one every 75000 seasons" from your standard deviation?

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