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10-12-2013, 08:55 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Charlesbourg, Québec
Country: Hungary
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Good question. If we assume that shots on net follow a binomial distribution (admittedly a stretch), then as the number of shots faced increases, the distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution.

At that point, and with a z-score, it's just a matter of measuring the area to the right (in the case of a positive z-score) or to the left (in the case of a negative z-score).

For instance, consider a goaltender with a z-score of -1.48 (since that's an image that I was able to swipe online ):

There is 6.94% of the curve to the left of the goaltender's performance, so we would expect a goaltender to do as poorly as he did (or worse) 6.94% of the time. So it would happen about every 14.4 seasons (since 1/6.94% = 14.4).

Does that make sense? Once we assume a binomial distribution (which isn't perfect, but it's not horrible), then it's just probability theory.
Makes perfect sense. Thank you so much for taking the time to answer me!

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