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10-19-2013, 09:25 PM
  #35
Garbage Goal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Yeh, top 5 picks are usually a gimme.

For anyone who did not see at the time, I compiled a big list of every player drafted from 90-04 a while back, and the probability of 'all stars' and guys who played 700, 400 and 200 games, then looked at the probabilities by round, and brackets of 5 from picks 1 through to 120 (as after the 4th round it is honestly a complete crapshoot.)

Here are picks 1-5's probabilities:

200 GP: 93.33%, 400 GP: 89.33%, 700 GP: 76%, All-Star: 48%

the drop off in the rest of the first is quite significant, and picks 6-25 are surprisingly similar, though 6-15 and 16-25 go down in levels.

But the difference between pick 6-10 and 20-25 is less than 1-5 and 6-10.

6-10: 200 GP: 70.7%, 400 GP: 57.33%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
11-15: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 50.7%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
16-20: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 45.3%, 700 GP: 25.3%, All-Star: 14.7%
21-25: 200 GP: 60%, 400 GP: 44%, 700 GP: 29.3%, All-Star: 16%
26-30: 200 GP: 45.3%, 400 GP: 34.7%, 700 GP: 20%, All-Star: 10.7%

so around 4/5 of each years top 5 play 700 games in the NHL... half are all star kind of players pretty nice figures/odds of them being a damn good player, also, you're 'half' guess was pretty spot on! Can't get much closer than 48%.
I very much appreciate the stats to back up what I thought. Nice to have.

I'm a good guesser. =P

But, yeah, I find it ridiculously annoying when people label a top three or five pick as "far from a sure thing" to belittle the picks. It's far more of a sure thing then anywhere else in the draft and actually has a pretty good chance of yielding an All-Star worthy player.

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