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10-20-2013, 05:08 PM
  #681
Appleyard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonHextall27 View Post
I think our success in the first round is pretty solid. You can have an argument either way over a couple guys, but we don't "miss" too often and draft any duds. The area that I would like to see improved is from round three and on. If you look back over the last ten years of drafts, there are some pretty good players who snuck past our scouts in the later rounds, guys who have had impact careers.

Imagine if we had wasted our 2004 8th round pick on some lanky Finnish goalie who went to Nashville instead of a dman named Travis Gawryletz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tripod View Post
Well that isn't going to happen when the team picks someone like Goule in the 3rd round all while there are talented, offensive players available...wanted Bjorkstrand bad at that pick. Then our pick comes and I am left saying...who???

Hard to get "steals" in later rounds when your team picks plugs instead
Sorry for taking this and running more off topic! But...

The problem is that the chance of players making the grade from the 3rd onwards is pretty low, so when people see a Datyuk, Zetterberg, Byfuglien, Lundqvist, Rinne or Miller they think 'why has my team not guy a guy like that!' it is understandable, especially as how good those guys are now you would think more people would have recognised their talent.

I also dislike drafting 'goons' in the later rounds... but the Flyers are pretty good in the late rounds frankly.

Whole NHL:

(player with) 200 GP: (drafts 1990-04)

3rd: 22%
4th: 13.8%
5th-7th: 10.4%

So each years draft, in rounds 3,4,5,6 and 7 (6.6, 4.14, 3.12, 3.12, 3.12 players per round per year) there are around 20 players who play 200 games, out of 150 drafted in that range. So with 30 teams and 20 of those players to go around...

When you look at 700 GP:

3rd: 7.33%
4th: 4.2%
5th-7th: 3.5%

So each year in those rounds (2.2, 1.26, 1.05, 1.05, 1.05 players per round per year) there are 6-7 players who play 700 games in the NHL, out of the 150 drafted in that range. So with 30 teams and 6-7 of those player to go around...

So really each team to break 'par' should draft:

2 200 game players after round 2 every 3 years
1 700 game player in those rounds every 5 years.

Flyers 1990-2005: (par 10 200 game players, 3 700 games players)

200 GP: Lomakin, Selivanov, Forbes, Hedberg, Fedoruk, Niittymaki, Cechmanek, Fraser, Picard, Thieren, Yuskevich, Prospal, Sharp, Seidenberg

700 GP: Thieren, Yuskevich, Prospal, Sharp (he will), Seidenberg

So the Flyers drafted 14 players over 200 games (10.05 average) 39% better than average.

And 5 players over 700 games (3.205 average) 56% better than average.

So from 90-05 the Flyers were actually pretty brilliant at late round drafting...

The problem seemingly is we traded most of them before they became the players they did! (especially the best few!)

Best three:

Prospal: Traded for Alex Daigle (traded for Kovalenko)

Sharp: Traded for Matt Elison (traded for 'future considerations') and a 3rd (later traded for 109 and 79, Matsumoto (traded for a 7th (Blindtrand)) and Kovar (who I think is still ours)

Seidenberg: Traded for Petr Nedved (waived 9 months later)

So the Flyers turned their best three late round draft picks in a 15 year period into: Kovalenko, Blindstrand, Nedved (for 9 months), Kovar and some 'futures'. 3 of them were let go for nothing.

That is why they look like a rubbish late round team, not because they are... but because of Bobby Clarke and his crazy trades of young players.


Last edited by Appleyard: 10-20-2013 at 05:24 PM.
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