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2013-2014 Prospect Stats and Discussion - Updated Jan 27
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10-28-2013, 11:43 PM
Join Date: Jan 2013
Originally Posted by
I'm going to have to disagree with you also. Being a high pick in the Bantam draft means nothing until they prove it in junior and beyond that. Teubert was a 1st overall pick I believe, didn't turn out great. Forsberg is another. There are much more busts than exceptions. As the other poster said, do your research before you make posts like this and call him out for lack of understanding.
Since this is common theme... and people keep saying do research... I have done research and here it is...
Billybaroo said this:
The likelihood of a kid who is drafted in the 1st round of the bantam draft getting drafted in the NHL ain't that good.
So we have to take away from this one assumption... "ain't that good" means "is not as good as something else". Otherwise what is the point... we cannot say 50% or 60% or 81.5% are "good"... must be comparative right... so let us dull it down to this since it seems to be common argument
"The likelihood of a kid who is drafted in the 1st round of the bantam draft getting drafted in the NHL is not any higher than those drafted in rounds 2+"
We can also look at Billybaroos other argument...
Its far, far far more impressive been a 7th round draft pick in the NHL (than a first round Bantam draft pick). It ain't even close.
Again we will suppose "impressive" here means the odds are better that they become an NHL player... otherwise it is too subjective to talk about...
So 1. "The likelihood of a kid who is drafted in the 1st round of the bantam draft getting drafted in the NHL is not any higher than those drafted in rounds 2+"
I will pick 2003 QMJHL Bantam Draft at random... you can define another if you want but I will use that as sample...
Round 1- 8/16 (50%)
Round 2- 5/16 (31%)
Round 3- 1/16 (6%)
Round 4- 2/16 (12.5%)
Round 5- 1/16 (6%)
Round 6- 0/16 (0%)
Round 7- 0%
Round 8- 0%
Round 9- 0%
Round 10- 2/16 (12.5%)
Round 11-15- 0%
These numbers are reproducible... easy to do... just look it up... this is one case among many... dozens... of first round being better at producing first rond NHL pick than other rounds
2. "Its far, far far more likely a 7th round draft pick in the NHL becomes a NHL player than a first round Bantam draft pick."
Okay so here we need two data sets... let us pick 2001 OHL Priority Selection first round... and 2004 NHL Draft 7th round
OHL Draft- 11/20 appeared in at least one NHL game (55%)
NHL Draft- 12/33 appeared in at least one NHL game (36%)
Right away we can see 2) is wrong... by nearly 20% difference...
So now that I have done research... we can stop this line of inquiry yes....
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