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10-30-2013, 04:30 PM
  #37
Freudian
Deja vu again?
 
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Join Date: Jul 2003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hatterson View Post
Just because Bernier faced a high number of clean shots in one season doesn't mean he will in the next, *UNLESS* we can show that a team has real control over shot quality against. That's the real question that needs to be addressed for this to have predictive power.
Of course. We shouldn't assume anything either way. There seems to be a blanket assumption in the advanced stat world that a shot attempt against is worth the same no matter what.

If it's shown that teams have shot type distribution that differs from other teams (both for and/or against) and it is shown that different shot types have varying probability of resulting in goals (which this study seems to show), the basic corsi/fenwick assumption that all shot attempts have equal worth should be thrown to the side. This is even if it's only with one seasons worth of empiric data to show this because the evidence I've seen from the advanced stat crowd that shot quality doesn't matter is much weaker than that.

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