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10-30-2013, 04:25 PM
  #39
Freudian
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Country: Sweden
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hatterson View Post
I would add an additional criteria.

As you said we must show:

1.) Teams have different shot quality on a season by season basis
2.) Shot quality matters (seems trivially obvious)

But, if 1 is true, we must also show:

3.) Teams can *control* their shot quality for or against.

The reason that I add 3 is because if teams cannot control their shot quality for or against, then their past results do not predict their future results and thus we should treat all teams the same when moving forward.

If 1 is true but 3 is not, shot quality is only useful to explain *why* teams might be doing better than but not predict if they can keep doing it.
It might be hard to isolate the effects of player quality/performance from the effects of the system. Does Oilers allow lots of chances against in transition because of their system or because their players make mistakes (turnovers, ill timed pinches).

All hockey analysis seem to have a big "it depends" element to it. I don't mind. I like "it depends".

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